January 21 Morning Market Watch

Trump policies stir up new waves. Plans to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada starting February 1, and a 10% (potentially rising to 25% in June) tariff on eight European countries, mark a clear escalation of global trade protectionism. These measures directly weaken the US dollar index, putting pressure on gold prices to rise. The unpredictable Middle East situation, the Greenland sovereignty issue causing tension between Europe and America, coupled with ongoing disruptions in Red Sea shipping, continue to boost safe-haven demand, leading to an expansion of gold's safe-haven premium.

Regarding the Fed, US inflation continues to decline, and employment data remains weak. The market widely expects rate cuts before the end of 2026. Recent investigations into Powell have decreased policy certainty, and real interest rate expectations have slightly fallen, all of which support gold prices.

More importantly, global central banks are accelerating the "de-dollarization" process. China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, providing solid support for gold prices.

Technical review: Yesterday, gold opened lower but found support around 4650, failing to break below. After a volatile rebound, it briefly retested 4705 during European trading, then gained momentum, breaking through previous highs with a strong upward trend. The rally continued into the evening.

Current outlook: If the price retraces to 4710-4715 or dips to the 4700 support level, consider buying on dips. Short-term resistance is at 4745-4750; a breakout could push toward 4770-4790. Note that short-term volume shows signs of divergence, and the daily chart is likely entering a high-level consolidation phase, with the possibility of significant shakeouts. The main trend remains bullish, so the strategy stays to follow the trend and go long.

The 4-hour chart shows short-term resistance at 4745-4750, with support levels at 4710-4715 and 4700.

Trading suggestion: Go long within the 4730-4720 range, add positions at 4700-4710, with targets at 4770-4790. If a clear breakout occurs, look toward 4845. #Strategy加仓BTC $ETH