#预测市场 Recently, I noticed that the data on Bitcoin in the prediction market has been fluctuating, rising from 27% to 38% over two days, which has indeed attracted a lot of attention. But what I want to say is that regardless of how the probabilities change, these numbers themselves are telling us an important message — the market is full of uncertainties.

Prediction markets reflect the collective expectations of participants, but expectations are often proven wrong. I have seen too many people increase their positions just because a probability number rises, only for their accounts to shrink when the market turns around. Even the smartest people can't avoid this because the market has its own temper.

The truly prudent approach is not to chase after prediction numbers, but to ask yourself a few questions: How much volatility can I tolerate? Is my asset allocation reasonably diversified? What percentage of my total assets does this money represent? What are my long-term goals?

If you have a judgment about a certain direction, set your position limit and stick to it. If you manage your positions well, even if the market moves against your expectations, you won't be severely hurt. This is much healthier than obsessing over every fluctuation in probability numbers.

Safety will always be more important than returns — this has been my deepest realization over the years.