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US stocks closed Tuesday with the Dow initially down 1.76%, the S&P 500 down 2.06%, and the Nasdaq down 2.39%. According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 5%, with a 95% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by March is 20.6%, with a 78.5% chance of no change, and a 0.9% chance of a total 50 basis point cut. The crypto market declined across the board, with Bitcoin breaking below 90,000 and Ethereum below the 3,000 psychological level. The crypto market remains in a weak correction pattern, with macro geopolitical risks and uncertainties around Fed policy expectations continuing to influence market sentiment. This week’s Fed policy meeting (January 27-28) statements may become the key catalyst for the next phase of market trends. If the Fed signals hawkish stance and further delays rate cuts, it could exert additional pressure on the crypto market; if signs of easing trade tensions emerge, the market may see a phased rebound and recovery. Focus will be on YiBo’s ongoing tracking of core signals such as Fed policy implementation, institutional fund flows, and on-chain data changes, with real-time updates on layout strategies and asset dynamics.

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Bitcoin opened yesterday around $92,800 and then entered a unilateral downtrend, dominated by bearish sentiment. During the midday session, prices quickly dropped to $90,600, entering a brief consolidation phase. At this point, weak bottom-fishing funds attempted to enter, pushing the price to rebound to $91,400 in the evening. However, the rebound momentum was extremely weak, unable to break through the previous oscillation lower boundary, and the bears quickly regained control, resuming the decline. In the early hours, Bitcoin accelerated downward to $89,200, forming a brief sideways consolidation at this level, with bulls and bears in stalemate. However, support was limited, and in the early morning today, bears reasserted pressure, pushing the price down to a low of $87,700, creating a recent low in the correction, before stabilizing. As of now, Bitcoin remains weakly oscillating at low levels, with a 24-hour decline of 5.27%, trading volume expanding to $37.123 billion, reflecting concentrated selling pressure. The current market pattern shows a clear downward trend, with technical signals strongly bearish. The dark cloud cover pattern and bearish alignment of moving averages create a strong bearish resonance. The price broke below key moving averages and entered a death cross, indicating increased short-term momentum and further downside risk. However, the extreme shrinking of volume coupled with falling prices conflicts, and the volume-price relationship fails to confirm the trend, suggesting a lack of sufficient selling pressure support. Key resistance is concentrated in the $91,000-$92,800 range, which is also under EMA pressure. Without effective breakout, the weak pattern may continue; support is temporarily at $87,700, and a break below could lead to further decline toward the previous low near $85,000.

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Ethereum’s trend is more weak than Bitcoin’s. After peaking at $3,235 in the previous trading day, it began a downward wave yesterday, testing a low of $3,164 in the morning. A false rebound followed, but persistent pressure at the $3,200 key level prevented effective bullish recovery. In the afternoon, bears regained control, with prices dropping sharply, reaching a low of $3,080 after midday, entering a sideways consolidation phase. During this period, bullish volume was scarce, unable to reverse the weak trend. In the late session, Ethereum’s decline resumed, and in the early hours, it broke through the psychological $3,000 level, briefly consolidating around $2,980. The early morning selling pressure continued, pushing the price down again, with a low of $2,914, then entering a slight correction. Currently, Ethereum is in a clear downtrend, with technical signals showing the price below moving averages and increasing momentum, indicating dominant bearish forces. The MA/EMA bearish alignment and engulfing patterns form a strong bearish resonance, further confirming the bearish outlook. However, the price has broken below the Bollinger Band lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions in the short term. Volume remains extremely low, and the volume-price relationship is unhealthy, with insufficient rebound strength. Resistance levels are at the $3,000 mark, which has shifted from support to strong resistance, with a secondary resistance zone at $3,155-$3,200. Support is focused around $2,900-$2,914; a break below this zone could lead to further declines toward the $2,800-$2,850 demand area.