#预测市场 Looking at the trading chain of the Maduro event on Polymarket, a familiar echo of history comes to mind—every cycle, the market repeats the same story, only the participants change their names.

The "weather delay" in the last few days of 2025 reminded me of the ICO bubble period in 2017. Back then, it was the same: those with informational advantages placed precise bets under extreme probabilities, while ordinary participants were crushed by time gaps and knowledge disparities. The only difference now is that it’s about geopolitical outcomes instead of coin price predictions. The essence remains the same—information asymmetry is always the market’s biggest killer.

The most ironic thing is the Chiwawas account. On December 26, he invested nearly $40,000 betting on losing power within the year, only to see the $750,000 he had almost won vanish like a Caribbean thunderstorm cloud. Then he adjusted his expectations and bet again three hours before dawn on January 3. I’ve seen this rollercoaster of psychology too many times—going from absolute confidence in one’s information, to helplessness in the face of uncontrollable forces, and finally to a desperate last-ditch effort. This is the most dangerous mindset in cycle trading.

Now, U.S. lawmakers want to legislate to prohibit federal officials from using material non-public information for prediction market trading. It seems like regulation, but I care more about: how much of a loophole can this close? Last year, I experienced an upgrade in exchange risk control, but what happened? Arbitrageurs just switched to different coins and trading pairs. Human nature’s desire for informational advantage always outpaces regulatory rules.

The real warning isn’t in the bill itself, but in the fact that this incident exposed the fragility of prediction markets as an emerging asset class. From the 2020 election forecasts to today’s geopolitical betting pools, each time it confirms the same truth: once the market becomes a tool for cashing in on information, it begins to self-destruct. The end of some cycles is already written into the price.