Gold price forecast and 2030 scenario from a long-term investment perspective

As the global financial order experiences significant upheaval, interest in gold is rapidly increasing. Incrementation’s latest gold market analysis report, “In Gold We Trust,” presents intriguing scenarios for gold price forecasts through the end of 2030. Traditionally, gold has been considered an outdated asset, but in the current long-term economic environment, it is once again gaining attention as a strategic investment.

Reasons Why the Gold Price Forecast Until 2030 Indicates a Bullish Outlook

According to Incrementation’s analysis, the current gold market is positioned in the second phase of a bullish trend in Dow Theory, known as the “participation phase of general investors.” In this phase, media coverage becomes favorable, speculative interest rises, and new financial products are launched successively.

Over the past five years, gold prices have risen by 92%, while the real purchasing power of the US dollar has declined by 50%. A key data point supporting the gold price forecast is that last year, gold hit record highs 43 times in a month, and as of the end of April this year, it has been updated 22 times. This is not merely a price increase but suggests a structural shift in trust.

Conventional views consider gold to be already overvalued. However, from a long-term perspective, gold price forecast models show different conclusions. Incrementation’s 2020 model predicts that, under a baseline scenario, gold could reach approximately $4,800 by the end of 2030, and under an inflation scenario, about $8,900. Since current prices already surpass the mid-term target for 2025, depending on economic developments over the next five years, this bullish scenario could materialize.

Long-term Upward Pressure Indicated by Central Banks and Money Supply

The most solid foundation for the gold price forecast is the actions of central banks. Since 2009, central banks have continuously accumulated gold, and this trend accelerated sharply after Russia’s foreign exchange reserves were frozen in February 2022. Remarkably, over the past three years, central banks have added over 1,000 tons of gold reserves annually, achieving a sort of “hat trick.”

According to statistics from the World Gold Council, official gold reserves worldwide reached approximately 36,252 tons as of February 2025, accounting for 22% of total foreign exchange reserves. This is the highest level since 1997, nearly doubling from 9% in 2016. Goldman Sachs’ analysis suggests that China alone is expected to purchase about 40 tons of gold per month in the future, amounting to nearly 500 tons annually.

From the perspective of the money supply, long-term upward pressure is also evident. Over the past 125 years in the US, the population has increased 4.5 times, while the money supply M2 has expanded by 2,333 times. In G20 countries, the money supply has grown at an average annual rate of 7.4%, transitioning from negative growth to renewed expansion. This increasing trend in money supply functions as a structural factor pushing long-term gold prices higher.

New Portfolio Strategies Based on Gold Price Forecasts

Amidst the turmoil of dollar dominance, expanding fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions, the traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds portfolio is becoming less effective. Incrementation proposes a new 60/40 portfolio reflecting modern economic conditions.

The new asset allocation is as follows: 45% stocks, 15% bonds, 15% gold (safe asset), 10% performance gold (such as silver and mining stocks), 10% commodities, and 5% Bitcoin. This composition aims to respond to the upward scenarios in gold prices while maintaining overall portfolio stability.

Particularly noteworthy is the concept of “performance gold.” Historically, silver and mining stocks tend to follow gold’s rise. Looking back at gold markets in the 1970s and 2000s, these peripheral assets delivered returns exceeding gold. During stagflation environments, the average real annual growth rate of gold’s real return was 7.7%, while silver achieved 28.6%, and mining stocks 3.4%.

The Role of Gold and Bitcoin in Long-term Outlooks

Positioning cryptocurrencies within the framework of gold price forecasts is a crucial aspect of modern investment strategies. Bitcoin is considered complementary to gold. Amid rising geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin’s independence as a decentralized cryptocurrency and its cross-border transaction capabilities offer a compelling alternative to traditional currencies.

Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization is about $1.9 trillion (approximately $94,200 per BTC), representing roughly 8% of gold’s market cap of about $23 trillion. Incrementation’s report suggests that Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold’s market cap by the end of 2030, corresponding to a scenario where 1 BTC is valued at about $900,000.

The long-term upward trends of gold and Bitcoin reinforce each other. Under the motto “competition stimulates business,” the combined performance of both assets, adjusted for risk, is likely to outperform each individually.

Long-term Risk Management and Short-term Adjustments

While the bullish scenario for gold prices is highly plausible, short-term challenges also exist. Although the long-term upward trend remains intact, certain risk factors could trigger short-term corrections.

If central bank demand unexpectedly declines from the current quarterly average of 250 tons, the structural demand base could weaken. Additionally, reductions in speculative positions, a rebound in the dollar, and a decrease in geopolitical premiums could act as correction factors. Technically, gold prices could temporarily fall to around $2,800.

However, such correction processes are unlikely to threaten the long-term upward trend of gold; instead, they can be viewed as stabilization phases of the bullish market. For investors, maintaining a long-term perspective and developing consistent risk management strategies to respond to market fluctuations are essential.

Gold’s Recovery at a Turning Point in the Financial Order

Incrementation’s report views the current situation not merely as a price rally but as a turning point in the financial order. Trends such as the hollowing out of US industry, uncontrollable fiscal deficits, the rise of non-state credit assets like Bitcoin, and large-scale central bank gold purchases suggest that the world is undergoing a new phase of financial reorganization.

In the long run, gold is likely to evolve from a “portfolio stabilizer” to a “super-national settlement asset.” As the traditional financial system loses trust, gold will serve not as a tool of political power but as a neutral, debt-free foundation for trade and trust.

Considering the bullish scenarios for gold prices and the current market environment comprehensively, the importance of gold in long-term investment strategies is undoubtedly increasing. For investors already holding gold, continued ownership is prudent, and for those considering entry, current market conditions remain an attractive option.