The Future of Investment Seen from the 20-Year Gold Price Chart: Path to Reach $8,900 by the End of 2030

There are interesting perspectives pointed out in Incrementum’s latest analysis, the “In Gold We Trust” report. To understand the current positioning of the gold market and to sketch the price graph 20 years from now, it is essential to accurately grasp the current market conditions at this very moment. The report suggests that by the end of 2030, gold prices could reach around $8,900, which is not an unrealistic dream but a forecast supported by multiple structural factors.

The Current Gold Market Is in the “Entry Phase” for Buyers

The full-fledged upward trend in gold prices did not start just a few years ago. Over the past five years, gold prices have risen by 92%, while the purchasing power of the US dollar has decreased by nearly 50% during the same period. This phenomenon is not merely a rise in gold but indicates that the trust in the very core currency system is beginning to be questioned.

Based on Dow Theory, if we classify the market into three stages, gold is currently in the “general investor entry stage.” Characteristics of this stage include media reports becoming more optimistic, a broadening of investor demographics to the general public, and the emergence of new financial products. In fact, in the first quarter of 2025 alone, $21.1 billion flowed into gold ETFs, marking the second-highest level ever. However, considering that inflows into stock ETFs are eight times higher and into bond ETFs five times higher, it is clear that institutional investors’ full-scale entry is still ahead. Imagining the graph 20 years from now, we are still in the early stages of an upward process.

Three Structural Factors Driving Up Gold Prices

Factor 1: Reorganization of the Global Financial Order

As pointed out in Zoltan Pozsar’s paper “Bretton Woods III,” the world is in a transition phase toward a new monetary system. The shift is moving away from the traditional dollar-centric system toward a more multipolar order that emphasizes gold backing.

The reasons why gold is being reevaluated as a new international settlement asset are clear. First, gold is neutral and does not belong to any country. Second, it carries no counterparty risk and is a pure asset. Third, the average daily trading volume in 2024 exceeds $229 billion, which may be surprising but can sometimes be more liquid than government bonds.

Central banks are reacting most sensitively to this change. They have achieved a “hat trick” of purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, and by February 2025, the proportion of gold in their foreign exchange reserves reached 22%. This is the highest level since 1997. While only 6.5% of the gold purchased so far by China, Goldman Sachs predicts that China will continue to buy about 40 tons per month, which amounts to about half of the total demand from central banks annually.

Factor 2: Structural Inflationary Pressures and Money Supply Expansion

Since 1900, while the US population has increased by 4.5 times, the money supply M2 has expanded by 2,333 times. Per capita, this is an increase of over 500 times. Across G20 countries, M2 continues to grow at an average annual rate of 7.4%.

This excessive expansion of the money supply is the most significant long-term driver of gold. Responses during economic downturns tend to be highly inflationary, and the Federal Reserve will likely face pressure to consider yield curve control, new rounds of quantitative easing, and even MMT or helicopter money. Demand for gold should rapidly increase within this inevitable currency inflation.

Factor 3: Trump Policies and Fiscal Shifts in Europe

In the US, the recognition that a strong dollar causes industrial hollowing-out is leading to a shift toward a weaker dollar policy. Meanwhile, in Europe, Germany has officially abandoned its nearly 80-year-old fiscal conservatism. The proposed €500 billion debt financing program by the incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected to cause national debt to surge from 60% to 90% of GDP. This will further undermine confidence in traditional safe assets like government bonds and accelerate demand for gold.

Rebuilding Investment Strategies: A New Asset Allocation Model

The traditional “60% stocks, 40% bonds” allocation is no longer suitable in today’s financial environment. Incrementum proposes a new 60/40 portfolio with the following structure:

• Stocks: 45% – To ensure growth opportunities while reducing risk
• Bonds: 15% – To diminish the traditional safe asset position
• Gold (safe asset): 15% – To strengthen portfolio stability
• Growth-oriented gold-related assets: 10% – Silver, mining stocks, commodities, etc.
• Commodities: 10% – For inflation hedging
• Bitcoin: 5% – Exposure to digital assets

A key point is elevating gold from a mere insurance asset to a core portfolio asset. From 1929 to 2025, in 15 out of 16 bear markets, gold outperformed the S&P 500, with an average relative performance of 42.55%.

Focus on Growth-Oriented Gold-Related Assets

As gold becomes mainstream, attention should also be paid to “growth-type gold-related assets” such as silver and mining stocks. Historically, gold leads the rise, followed by silver and mining stocks in a relay pattern. Looking at the performance in the 1970s and subsequent 2000s, silver achieved a real annual compound growth rate of 28.6%, and mining stocks 3.4%. During the 1970s, silver returned 33.1%, and mining stocks 21.2%, with extraordinary returns.

Synergy with Bitcoin

Bitcoin is not an asset opposed to gold but rather a complementary one. The report indicates that Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold’s market capitalization by the end of 2030. Given the current gold market size of about $23 trillion and assuming a gold price of $4,800, Bitcoin would need to rise to approximately $900,000.

Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, the advantages of Bitcoin as a decentralized digital asset are clear. Its independence from state control and cross-border transaction capabilities offer a new alternative to traditional currencies. The US passing the “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act” signals a willingness to compete in acquiring digital gold as a store of value.

The Shadow Price of Gold: Theoretical Value vs. Reality

To understand long-term gold price targets, the concept of “shadow gold price” is useful. This is the theoretical gold price if the monetary base were fully backed by gold.

Based on current market data, interesting figures emerge. For the US, fully backing M0 would require a gold price of $21,416; for M2, $82,223. Historically, the Federal Reserve Act of 1914 set a 40% coverage ratio, which would have required a gold price of $8,566 at that standard.

In other words, the $8,900 target price at the end of 2030 is not unrealistic but rather a balanced level compared to historical coverage ratios.

Two Scenarios for the Next 20 Years

Incrementum presents two main scenarios:

• Base Scenario: Gold price reaches around $4,800 by the end of 2030.
• Inflation Scenario: Reaches $8,900.

Considering that current gold prices already exceed the baseline target of $2,942 for the end of 2025, the actual future value could be somewhere between these two scenarios depending on inflation trends over the next five years.

When imagining the graph 20 years from now, it is crucial to understand the range between these two scenarios: a lower bound of $4,800, an upper bound of $8,900, with a final resting point somewhere in between.

Separating Short-term Corrections from Long-term Trends

It is important to distinguish between short-term market fluctuations and the long-term upward trend. The report indicates that even in a bull market, a correction of 20% to 40% could occur, with a short-term dip possibly down to around $2,800. This is not a bearish signal but rather a sign of market health.

Historically, during the stagflation of the 1970s, gold generated a real annual return of 7.7%, silver 28.6%, and mining stocks 3.4%. Investors who navigated that period saw short-term corrections as merely opportunities to “buy more.”

Risk Factors and Countermeasures

Unforeseen declines in central bank demand, a decrease in geopolitical premiums, or a scenario of US economic strength leading to rate hikes are all real risks. However, these risks are unlikely to undermine the long-term upward trend of gold.

What is more important is maintaining a consistent risk management strategy. Investors should avoid being swayed by short-term oversold conditions in the dollar and should focus on structural financial reorganization trends for investment decisions.

Conclusion: A Return to Supra-national Settlement Assets

When projecting the gold price graph 20 years from now, it is essential to recognize that we are not merely in a price rise phase but in a transitional period where a completely new financial order is forming. The loss of trust in traditional government bonds, the relative decline of dollar dominance, organized central bank gold purchases, and structural inflation pressures reinforce each other, accelerating the reevaluation of gold’s value.

The $8,900 or higher level by the end of 2030 is not an optimistic wish but a realistic scenario indicated by multiple economic indicators and policy trends. Gold will play an increasingly important role as the global financial and monetary system becomes more chaotic. As a supra-national settlement asset, it is more likely to serve as a neutral, debt-free trust foundation rather than a tool of political power.

For investors looking at the graph 20 years from now, the investment decisions and asset allocations made at this very moment will be critical in determining the ultimate returns.