Compared to 2015, this market cycle still has room to rise

A recent interesting divergence has emerged in the market—A-shares are booming, while the crypto market is entering a testing phase. However, from the perspective of global capital flows, this situation is brewing a significant transformation. Many participants are beginning to realize that being limited to a single market is no longer the optimal choice, and instead, they should adopt a global perspective to participate in market opportunities.

A-shares trading volume hits a new high but still lags behind the 2015 peak

According to the latest data, the trading volume of A-shares has reached 3 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.54% of the total market capitalization. While this figure looks impressive, compared to the 3.37% during the 2015 bull market, there is still room for growth. Based on this logic, if the trading volume surpasses 4 trillion yuan, a top-escape strategy could be considered.

From the perspective of margin financing leverage, the current balance of margin trading has reached a record high of 2.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.53% of the circulating market value. Compared to the peak of over 4.5% during the 2015 frenzy, the current leverage level still appears relatively healthy. This indicates that capital continues to flow in, market sentiment is still in the accumulation stage, and the upward trend has not yet exhausted.

After 16 consecutive days of gains, a 1-2 day sharp correction could occur at any time. Such a pullback could actually be an excellent opportunity to position, especially in hot sectors like aerospace commercial, brain-machine interfaces, and AI applications, seeking contrarian buy-in opportunities.

Crypto market selling pressure eases, dollar-cost averaging zones have formed

The scene in the crypto market is quite different. The overall market has not shown a clear upward trend recently, but more importantly, selling pressure has significantly diminished. The ETH staking withdrawal queue was nearly zero by early January (at its peak, over 2.6 million ETH were queued), directly indicating that the selling pressure from stakers has been essentially eliminated.

At this current level, every dip can be viewed as a good entry opportunity. Compared to traditional markets, the crypto market offers a very high cost-performance ratio, even resembling a standard dollar-cost averaging zone. Although there are no obvious signs of capital inflow at present, the reduced selling pressure has laid a foundation for subsequent rebounds.

Institutional capital faces choices, cross-market allocation will become a trend

According to Binance’s annual report published in 2025, the exchange’s annual trading volume reached 34 trillion USD, comparable to the 58 trillion USD of A-shares and 50 trillion USD of US stocks. In terms of user scale, Binance has 300 million users, similar to A-shares’ 250 million and US stocks’ 200 million users. This demonstrates that the crypto market has become a relatively mature capital market, fully capable of absorbing large institutional asset allocations.

As the cost-effectiveness of A-shares gradually declines, institutional funds will face new choices. Currently, smart money is flocking to A-shares to harvest immediate profits. Who would want to gamble in the challenging crypto market? But this is precisely where the opportunity lies—when stock market returns decrease to a certain level, the marginalized crypto market will become a new battleground for capital seeking breakthroughs.

The most likely scenario for institutional reflow is in the context of increasing stock market risks. At that time, the crypto “water reservoir” will become an important tool to enhance portfolio success rates. Therefore, for investors willing to be patient, every dip at this moment is worth approaching with a dollar-cost averaging mindset, as the cost-performance ratio has already reached a relatively high level.