The most talked-about statement recently is comparing the current trend to the bear market of 2022.

Claims like "the candlestick patterns are the same," "the amplitude from high to low is similar," "the rebound rhythm is identical"... These arguments are heard every time. Some even confidently say that there will be another dip later, reasoning that "history will repeat itself."

Honestly, this kind of reasoning is really unfounded.

Just looking at a few candlesticks and asking "does it look like this or that" is really just seeking psychological comfort, not genuine market analysis. The market environment has changed; can the macro background of 2022 (Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, recession expectations) be the same in 2026? The institutional holdings structure has changed, retail participation has shifted, and even the overall ecosystem's maturity is different.

Short-term pattern coincidences happening over a long enough time cycle are actually quite probable. But using this as the core argument to predict future market movements? That’s a bit absurd.

Instead of fixating on patterns to find answers, it’s better to pay more attention to what the fundamentals and capital flows are telling us. That’s what’s truly worth spending time on.