January 23 | ETH Trend Analysis

Key Points

Current Price: $2,964.66 (as of January 23)

Short-term Outlook: Consolidation with a slight bearish bias. Price is in a downtrend channel, but there are oversold rebound signs on the 4-hour chart. Attention should be paid to the support around $2,900. If the $2,900 support is broken, further decline towards the $2,800 region is possible.

Key Support: $2,900-$2,950 zone (Lower Bollinger Band and psychological level)

Key Resistance: $3,000 (round number resistance) and $3,160 (20-day moving average)

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart Analysis:

• RSI at 40.4, in a neutral to weak zone, indicating short-term selling pressure
• Price trading below the 20-day moving average ($3,162), indicating a short-term bearish trend
• Lower Bollinger Band at $2,898, current price near the lower band support
• MACD on the daily shows negative values, but the histogram shows signs of convergence

4-Hour Chart Analysis:

• RSI at 37.4, approaching oversold territory, suggesting a technical rebound may be needed
• MACD histogram is turning positive, indicating a potential short-term weak rebound
• 4-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing, showing decreased volatility and possible directional breakout

Moving Averages System:

• Price below the 20-day simple moving average ($3,162) and exponential moving average ($3,112)
• 50-day moving average at $3,079 and 200-day at $3,669, indicating medium to long-term trend still to be confirmed

Derivatives Market Situation

Open Interest and Funding Rates:

• Total open interest (OI) reaches $79 billion, indicating high market participation
• Average funding rate at 0.27%, in a normal slightly long-biased zone, no extreme sentiment
• Long to short ratio at 3.68:1, showing dominance of long positions

Liquidation Data:

• Liquidations within 24 hours amount to $61.36 million, mainly long liquidations
• Liquidation ratio suggests leverage risk has been somewhat released, market sentiment is becoming more rational

Fundamental Support

Staking Data:

• Total ETH staked exceeds 35 million, with a high staking rate
• Annualized staking yield stable between 2.6% and 3.0%, providing steady underlying returns

On-chain Activity:

• Total Value Locked (TVL) remains high at around $85 billion, indicating active DeFi ecosystem
• Layer2 network transaction volume continues to grow, supporting ETH’s fundamental outlook

Network Revenue:

• Base fees remain the main source of network income, with MEV revenue providing additional income
• Transaction costs are kept low, favorable for user activity and ecosystem development

Risk Warning

1. Technical Risks: If the $2,900 key support is broken, further decline to the $2,800-$2,850 zone may occur
2. Leverage Risks: Although liquidation risk has eased, long positions still dominate, caution is needed for chain reactions of liquidations
3. Market Sentiment: Overall sentiment remains cautious; monitor Bitcoin’s movements for its impact on Ethereum

Trading Recommendations

Short-term Traders:

• Consider entering long positions lightly around $2,900-$2,950, with stop-loss below $2,880
• For rebounds to $3,000-$3,100, consider reducing positions or shorting

Medium to Long-term Investors:

• Current levels are suitable for phased building; focus on the effectiveness of the $2,900 support
• If $2,900 is broken, wait for a better entry around $2,800-$2,850

Risk Management:

• Do not allocate more than 5% of total funds per trade
• Set clear stop-loss levels to keep maximum loss per trade within 2%

References

CoinGecko price data, Dune Analytics on-chain data, Binance technical indicators, derivatives market data, Ethereum network basic metrics. All data as of January 23, 2026.