Ultimate Bear Year: Four Times Shorting BTC from a Loss of 5.48 million to a Profit of 65.5 million

A whale known as the “Ultimate Short Seller” has demonstrated what “perseverance” and “risk management” mean over the course of a year. Starting from January 2025, this address frequently shorted BTC, with the first three trades totaling a loss of $5.48 million, but in the most recent short position, achieved an annual profit of $65.5 million. Currently, it still holds a $44.5 million short position with an unrealized profit of $11.2 million, but liquidation risk is approaching.

The Four-Year Cycle of Short Selling Stories

This whale’s shorting journey can be clearly displayed in a table:

Why continue after the first three losses?

From the data, this whale did not fully cut losses after the initial three unsuccessful shorts. Instead, he expanded his position to a peak of $136 million at the end of October, indicating confidence in a long-term bearish outlook on BTC. This “hold tight” strategy ultimately paid off in the fourth position.

According to the latest news, BTC has fallen 6.85% over the past 7 days, with the current price at $88,935.92. The average entry price for this whale’s fourth short was about $111,500, meaning he established the short at a higher price, and the decline in BTC brought him significant contract profits.

The importance of funding rate income

It’s worth noting that $6.55 million of this whale’s $65.5 million profit came from funding rate income. This shows he not only bet correctly on the direction but also earned stable income through long-term holding. In a market where BTC continues to rise, longs pay funding to shorts, and this income is an additional benefit for long-term short sellers.

Risk assessment of current holdings

This whale still holds a BTC short with 20x leverage, totaling $44.5 million. From the data:

• Current average entry price: $111,500
• Liquidation price: $106,600
• Current BTC price: $88,935.92
• Unrealized profit margin: 505%

Where is the risk?

Although unrealized profits look substantial, the distance between the liquidation price and the current price is relatively small. If BTC rebounds from $88,935 to above $106,600, this $44.5 million short position will be liquidated. Historically, BTC tends to rebound quickly, so this risk cannot be ignored.

Why not fully take profits yet?

This whale has not adjusted his position since December 26, indicating he is waiting for further declines. He has reduced from a peak of $136 million to $44.5 million, showing increased risk awareness. However, holding onto this part of the short suggests he remains bearish on the market’s near-term direction.

Market insights

This case reflects several interesting phenomena:

• Perseverance isn’t necessarily wrong. The first three losses didn’t break this whale; instead, they set him up to seize the opportunity in the fourth trade.
• Risk management is crucial. After profits, he scaled down his positions rather than greedily holding all.
• Long-term shorting requires patience. Although funding rate income per trade may seem small, long-term accumulation can be significant.

From personal observation, this whale’s strategy has evolved from “simply betting on direction” to a “direction + cost management” combination, which may be the key to his eventual profitability.

Summary

Four short positions over a year, with the first three losing $5.48 million and the last gaining $65.5 million. This story shows that in crypto markets, perseverance and risk management are equally important. Currently, he still holds a $44.5 million short position with a liquidation price at $106,600. If BTC continues to fall, unrealized profits will grow; but if BTC rebounds above this level, the risk will quickly materialize. The market will continue to watch this “Ultimate Short Seller” for his next move.