$1.166 billion short positions face resistance: Why is the path to Ethereum's rise so difficult?

According to the latest news, if ETH breaks through $3,069, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.166 billion. Conversely, if it falls below $2,790, the long liquidation strength will be only $902 million. This indicates that the current market pressure for ETH to rise is much greater than for it to fall, which truly reflects the current market sentiment.

Liquidation Strength Reveals Market Imbalance

According to the latest data, ETH is currently trading at $2,922.82, positioned between the two liquidation extremes. But from the liquidation strength perspective, the upward pressure is clearly greater: breaking through $3,069 requires liquidating short positions worth $1.166 billion, while the long liquidation strength to drop to $2,790 is only $902 million, a difference of $264 million.

What does this indicate?

The side with higher liquidation strength usually represents greater risk in that direction. The higher liquidation strength for upward movement suggests that the market has accumulated a large number of short positions, with stop-losses set around $3,069. Once the price breaks this level, these shorts will be forced to close, creating a “liquidity wave” that could push the price higher. Conversely, this also means that the resistance to breaking through this level is stronger.

Market Sentiment is Bearish, Upward Movement Faces Cold Reception

Related information shows that the current market sentiment does not support ETH rising. Based on the latest on-chain data:

• ETH net outflow of 38,600 coins from CEXs in the past 24 hours reflects continued withdrawal sentiment among investors
• Funding rates on mainstream CEXs and DEXs are broadly bearish, with ETH funding rates on Binance turning negative
• The market is generally bearish on major coins like BTC, ETH, SOL

This bearish market environment puts substantial pressure on ETH to break above $3,069. Even though the $1.166 billion short liquidation strength could push prices higher, in a predominantly bearish atmosphere, such upward movement may only be a rebound rather than a trend reversal.

Downside Risk is Relatively Mild

In contrast, the lower liquidation strength at $2,790, though less, reflects that long positions are relatively dispersed. This could mean that longs are less eager to bottom-fish, or that large long positions have already been taken at higher levels. Once below $2,790, despite the $902 million liquidation strength, it may not generate a strong liquidity wave.

Summary

Currently, ETH is in an interesting position: upward movement requires breaking through $1.166 billion in short liquidation strength, which is particularly difficult in a bearish market sentiment. Although the $902 million in long liquidation strength to the downside is lower, it also indicates that the longs’ defenses are relatively weak. Investors should pay close attention to the key levels of $3,069 and $2,790, as they will determine ETH’s short-term market performance. Based on current market sentiment, the risk of testing $2,790 downward seems greater than the possibility of breaking above $3,069.