How far is BTC from the liquidation explosion point? $1.498 billion in short positions waiting for a breakthrough

According to the latest news, BTC is facing significant liquidation pressure at two key price levels. If it breaks above $93,463, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.498 billion; conversely, if it falls below $85,000, the long liquidation strength will be $1.357 billion. Currently, BTC is priced at $88,981.79, between these two trigger points, and the market is in a sensitive equilibrium.

Asymmetry of Liquidation Strength

The current market exhibits a clear asymmetric pattern. The upward and downward liquidation strengths are $14.98 billion and $13.57 billion respectively, with a slight difference, indicating slightly greater upward pressure. This suggests that short-sellers have established more positions, concentrating around the $93,463 level, waiting to be liquidated.

Historical data shows this situation is changing. As of January 20, the short liquidation strength when BTC broke above $94,149 was as high as $2.47 billion. Compared to the current $1.498 billion, the liquidation strength has decreased, reflecting that some short positions may have already been closed or liquidated.

Risk Assessment at the Current Price Level

BTC is currently at $88,981.79, with $4,481 of space to reach the upward trigger point at $93,463, representing approximately a 5.04% increase. There is also a $3,981 downward space to the $85,000 trigger point, a decline of about 4.48%.

From a technical perspective, BTC has fallen 1.10% in the past 24 hours and 6.70% over the past week, indicating a weak market. However, in the last 24 hours, mainstream CEXs saw a net inflow of 5,024.49 BTC, with Binance alone net inflow of 4,039.50 BTC, suggesting institutional and large investors are accumulating on dips, and deposit sentiment remains strong.

True Reflection of Market Sentiment

Based on the latest information, the funding rates on mainstream CEXs and DEXs indicate a generally bearish market. This seems contradictory to the increasing deposit activity, but actually reflects market complexity: large investors are buying spot or preparing to go long, while the futures market still favors short positions.

Liquidation strength essentially reveals where liquidity is concentrated. Higher liquidation bars mean that when prices reach those levels, they will trigger stronger reactions due to liquidity waves. The current $1.498 billion short liquidation strength is sufficient to generate significant chain reactions upon breakout.

Key Observation Points

It is crucial to note that the upward trigger point at $93,463 is closer to the current price and has a larger liquidation strength. This means that if BTC can break upward, it may trigger a wave of short liquidations, pushing prices higher. However, this depends on the market finding enough buy-side support to sustain the upward move.

On the downside, the $85,000 long liquidation strength is $1.357 billion. If the price falls below this level, longs could face a chain of liquidations.

Summary

Currently, BTC is between two key liquidation strength points. The upward liquidation strength of $14.98 billion is slightly greater than the downward strength of $13.57 billion, indicating that short positions are relatively heavier. Although market sentiment is bearish, deposit data from CEXs shows that large investors are still gradually building positions. The next move depends on whether the market can find a balance between these two trigger points; any breakout in either direction could trigger intense chain reactions of liquidations. Investors should closely monitor the levels at $93,463 and $85,000.