Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Strategy reaching $440, why are institutions like Vanguard increasing their holdings?

According to the latest news, 11 Wall Street analysts predict that the year-end stock target price for MicroStrategy (Strategy, stock code MSTR) could be $440.82. This forecast has attracted attention against the backdrop of multiple large institutional investors recently increasing their holdings in this Bitcoin treasury company, with significant purchases by Vanguard, ShariaPortfolio, and other institutions sending a strong bullish signal.

Why Analysts Are Optimistic About Strategy

What does a target price of $440.82 represent? Based on Strategy’s current holdings and strategic outlook, analysts’ optimistic expectations are mainly grounded in the following factors.

Competitive Advantage of Bitcoin Holdings

Strategy currently holds 709,715 Bitcoins, with a cost basis of $53.92 billion and a current market value of $46.03 billion. According to the latest data, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have reached 1.1 times the total holdings of all governments worldwide. This means Strategy has become one of the largest Bitcoin holders globally, second only to Bitcoin itself in circulation. This scale advantage results in a close positive correlation between Strategy’s stock price and Bitcoin’s price.

Institutional Investor Participation Signals

In the past week, several large institutional investors have increased their holdings in Strategy stock. Funds under Vanguard purchased 1.23 million shares of MSTR, worth approximately $202.5 million, marking the fund’s first investment in Strategy. Islamic investment firm ShariaPortfolio also disclosed a purchase of Strategy shares worth $7 million, currently holding a total of 150,325 shares. The participation of these institutional investors not only boosts market liquidity but also indirectly validates analysts’ valuation of Strategy.

CEO’s Strategic Commitment for 2026

Strategy CEO Phong Le recently emphasized that 2026 will be a pivotal year for Bitcoin and the company. He pointed out that the company’s Bitcoin balance of $6.5 billion and dollar reserves of $2.25 billion are sufficient to sustain dividends for the preferred stock product Stretch for 60 to 100 years, meaning Bitcoin would only need to appreciate by about 1.5% annually to uphold this commitment. This long-term strategic positioning alleviates investor concerns about the company’s sustainability.

True Signals Behind Market Divergence

It’s worth noting that not all analysts are optimistic. Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev recently downgraded Strategy’s target stock price from $484 to $403, citing rising geopolitical risks. This divergence reflects differing views in the market regarding companies like Strategy that hold Bitcoin treasury assets.

However, from the actual actions of institutional investors, the bullish sentiment appears stronger. Vanguard’s large-scale purchases, ShariaPortfolio’s ongoing positioning, and Strategy’s recent move to add 22,305 Bitcoins with $1.83 billion all indicate market participants’ confidence in Strategy’s long-term value.

The Reasonableness of the $440 Target Price

Strategy’s current Bitcoin holdings correspond to approximately 0.00247141 Bitcoins per share. Considering analysts’ expectations for Bitcoin’s price and the additional value created through preferred stock products and other financial instruments, the target price of $440.82 seems reasonably justified. This price level suggests some upside potential from current market prices but is not an astronomical figure; rather, it’s based on rational assessments of the Bitcoin market and Strategy’s strategic outlook.

Summary

Wall Street analysts’ bullish forecasts for Strategy, combined with actual large-scale purchases by institutions like Vanguard, reflect market recognition of the business model of Bitcoin treasury companies. By holding substantial Bitcoin reserves and innovating financial products, Strategy has become a mechanism for participating in Bitcoin’s value growth. While the $440.82 target price involves some divergence, the underlying logic is clear: as Bitcoin’s recognition as a store of value increases, Strategy, as the largest Bitcoin holder, is poised to benefit. Future focus should be on Bitcoin price trends, ongoing institutional participation, and Strategy’s financing and M&A activities.