Bitcoin drops to US$ 88,000 and profit cycle turns negative for the first time since 2023

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bitcoin Today: BTC Drops to US$ 88,000 and Profit Cycle Turns Negative for the 1st Time Since 2023 Original Link: Bitcoin is heading to close the week in the red, falling another 1.2% this Friday to be traded at US$ 88,853. In reais, the cryptocurrency is quoted at R$ 470,823.

Bitcoin holders are crossing a psychological threshold that hasn’t been seen in over two years, shifting from recording profits to losses.

The realized net profit/loss, which captures the total gains or losses that investors consolidate when moving coins on-chain, has entered negative territory, suggesting that the realization of losses is becoming widespread.

“This is the first time that holders have realized net losses in a 30-day period since October 2023,” analysts stated in a published report.

“Bitcoin tourists are cutting losses,” suggesting that short-term holders are selling their positions and recording losses.

This signals a possible inflection point regarding the bull market that started at the end of 2023, serving as an important on-chain thermometer for investors seeking to assess market strength.

The accumulated realized net losses over the period amount to approximately 69,000 BTC. With Bitcoin priced at US$ 88,000, these losses total over US$ 6 billion.

On the other hand, the divergence is striking when compared to previous market peaks.

At the March 2024 price peak, 1.2 million BTC in realized profits were recorded, but by October 2025, even with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of US$ 124,774, this number had fallen to 331,000 BTC.

“The realized net loss also follows similar levels and patterns to March 2022, when the bear market was already underway,” adding that “the decline in realized net profits indicates a loss of momentum in Bitcoin’s price.”

The decline is not necessarily a sign of an imminent reversal. The decrease in realized profit and loss signals lower volatility due to the entry of “more sophisticated players in the digital asset market.”

The effect of less volatility

Macroeconomic factors appear to be the main driver for Bitcoin’s price, observing the asset’s increasing sensitivity to policy changes.

The drop of the main cryptocurrency below US$ 90,000 was partly driven by the effects of Japan’s bond market crisis and a sequence of US$ 1 billion liquidations following changes in foreign policy.

“Federal Reserve interest rate forecasts, the imminent US debt crisis, and its foreign policy” are important factors to consider.

The upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve is seen as a crucial variable, especially for Bitcoin, with expectations that markets will likely “see very favorable conditions, as the government seeks to accelerate economic growth.”

Whether the cycle of negative profits will trigger a prolonged decline or just a temporary adjustment now depends on which view proves more accurate.