Bitcoin Eyes $107,000 as Holder Accumulation Signals Turn Positive

Recent on-chain analytics suggest Bitcoin is entering a critical accumulation phase, with market conditions aligning for a potential move toward $107,000. At current trading levels near $87.88K, the technical and sentiment-based signals are converging to paint an increasingly bullish picture for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Chain Data Reveals Easing Sell Pressure from Long-Term Holders

Cryptoquant’s analysis indicates a notable shift in holder behavior. The 90-day average of spent UTXOs—a key metric for tracking transaction activity from early Bitcoin holders—has declined substantially from cycle peaks around 2,300 BTC down to approximately 1,000 BTC. This metric serves as a proxy for selling activity among veteran investors. The lower reading suggests these holders are tightening their grip on positions rather than distributing them into the market. Such data patterns typically emerge during consolidation periods that precede meaningful price appreciation.

Exchange Outflows Hit Year-High, Signaling Accumulation Phase

Complementing the on-chain holder data, Bitcoin has experienced its largest net outflows from major exchanges since December 2024. This exodus of capital from centralized platforms historically correlates with buyers withdrawing assets to self-custody, indicating conviction and reducing near-term sell pressure. The combination of reduced selling from OG holders and significant exchange withdrawals creates an environment where buyers have gained the upper hand over sellers.

Gold Negative Correlation: Historical Precedent for Rally

On the macro front, an intriguing shift has materialized: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has turned negative. Historical analysis of comparable periods reveals that when such a divergence occurs, Bitcoin has averaged gains of approximately 56% over roughly two months. This represents a technical bullish setup that, combined with reduced holder selling pressure and exchange outflows, forms a multi-layered case for the 107,000 target price.

What the Convergence Means

The alignment of these three factors—technical indicators pointing to a breakout, diminished selling from long-term holders, and sustained capital flight from exchanges—creates the backdrop for Bitcoin to test higher price levels. While $107,000 represents significant upside from current levels, the supporting evidence from chain analysis and historical precedent suggests the trajectory warrants investor attention. Market participants observing these metrics should monitor whether the 107,000 level serves as resistance or capitulation point in the weeks ahead.