The probability of getting struck by lightning increases in 2026: Four major investors predict a turbulent scenario

This year, policy risks akin to lightning strikes surrounding the economic outlook are increasingly rising. The four hosts of the world-class technology and business podcast — early investors in Uber and Robinhood Jason Calacanis, billionaire and founder of Social Capital Chamath Palihapitiya, scientist-turned-entrepreneur David Friedberg of The Production Board, and known as the United States’ first “AI and Cryptocurrency Chief Officer” David Sacks— have conducted an in-depth analysis of the political, business, and technological trends of 2026. Their predictions cover a wide range from lightning-fast policy changes to industry reorganization.

California Wealth Tax, Lightning-Fast Policy Risks

The most urgent issue is California’s asset seizure tax. Sacks predicts this policy will be “the hot topic of the year.” Currently, signature collection is underway, and if about 850,000 signatures are gathered, it can be put to a vote in April. During the voting process, widespread fear is expected to trigger the migration of many high-net-worth individuals.

Unlike Sacks, who has already relocated to Texas, Chamath remains in a “wait-and-see but potentially active” state. However, according to his analysis, the net worth of friends who have clearly left amounts to approximately $5 trillion, and including those still observing, nearly half of California’s estimated taxable assets could be lost.

The most concerning part is the super voting rights clause. This provision recalculates net worth based on voting multipliers, which could increase the actual tax burden for individuals like Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin by 25–50%. For example, with a market cap of $4 trillion, those holding 52% voting rights could be considered to own $1 trillion individually.

Polymarket’s probability data vividly illustrates the risk of this policy. The likelihood of the vote, which initially was at 45%, surged to 80% after intervention by Ro Khanna and Bernie Sanders, can only be avoided under two scenarios—either the labor union (SEIU) runs out of funds or California Governor Gavin Newsom mediates negotiations. If put to a vote, the passage probability is estimated at around 40%.

Business Winners of 2026: Copper, IPO, and Amazon’s Triangular Fragmentation

In the business sector, the most noteworthy asset is copper. Chamath pointed out that “in a world emphasizing strengthening unilateralism and national economic resilience, the supply imbalance of key elements is severely underestimated.” Copper is currently the most useful and affordable, used everywhere from data centers to chips and weapon systems. Considering current trends, global copper supply is expected to be about 70% short by 2040.

The revival of the IPO market is also a major growth driver. Sacks predicts “2026 will be the year of IPOs,” with many companies successfully listing and creating trillions of dollars in new market capitalization. This is interpreted as part of the ‘Trump boom,’ signaling a major reversal from the declining trend of listed companies.

Amazon is expected to become the first case of the Corporate Singularity. Jason predicts it will reach “the point where robot contribution to profits exceeds that of humans.” Autonomous subsidiaries like Zoox are progressing smoothly, replacing human workers through large-scale robot automation. The increased likelihood of same-day delivery in Austin is also a result of massive automated warehouses and logistics networks.

Friedberg highlights Huawei and Polymarket as long-term growth engines. Huawei is deepening its involvement in semiconductors through cooperation with SMIC, likely surpassing Western expectations this year. Polymarket, after collaborating with the New York Stock Exchange, is likely to trigger market participation from Robinhood, Coinbase, and Nasdaq, evolving beyond a simple exchange into a news platform.

The Decline of Traditional SaaS and the Deepening California Crisis

In the business weakness sector, traditional SaaS industry will be most affected. Chamath pointed out that “it’s a $3–4 trillion economy annually, but 90% of profits are concentrated in ‘maintenance’ and ‘migration’.” With AI and new technologies advancing, the economic opportunities in these two areas are expected to shrink rapidly. Companies like ServiceNow, Workday, and DocuSign already showed poor performance in 2025, signaling this trend.

California itself is expected to become the biggest weak spot. The shadow of the wealth tax and strict regulations are driving business and capital out of the state. Particularly, state governments’ funding crises are anticipated to worsen. Friedberg analyzed that “exposure of waste, fraud, and abuse in state agencies will increase, raising doubts about long-term solvency.” Even more serious is the massive unrealized pension debt problem in each state, which will reveal the existence of enormous black holes in state finances.

Young white-collar workers are also emerging as a crisis group. Jason expressed concern that recent graduates are finding it increasingly difficult to secure entry-level jobs, as companies realize that AI automation is more efficient than onboarding new employees. Friedberg added a cultural factor—“many Z-generation graduates lack motivation, organizational skills, and execution capabilities,” citing testimonies from CEO friends. The combination of these factors is deepening the intergenerational employment gap.

The Rise of AI Coding Assistants and Decisive Trades in 2026

The most important trading sector in 2026 will be AI coding assistants and tool use. Sacks predicts, “since the chatbot boom at the end of 2022, this will be the hottest area and will become critically important this year.” The developer productivity revolution is expected to fundamentally change corporate valuation and M&A strategies.

Geopolitically, the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a key focus. Various economic and political factors are driving efforts to resolve the conflict, which will have broad impacts on energy and grain supply chains in the region, as well as on the global reallocation of capital.

Alongside lightning-like policy risks, 2026 is expected to be a tumultuous year marked by the rise of specific assets like copper, IPOs, and AI coding assistants, and the decline of traditional industries.