Disruptive Changes in the Global Economy of 2026: Technology Rejection Foretelling a Copper Surge, Oil Recession, and the Rise of New Cryptocurrency Assets

In the warm Texas weather at the beginning of the new year—70°F (21°C)—the four major Silicon Valley investors are drawing the economic landscape for 2026. The forecasts for the 2026 economy announced by the hosts of All-In Podcast—early Uber and Robinhood investor Jason Calacanis, billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya known as the king of SPACs, scientific insight expert David Friedberg, and U.S. government AI and cryptocurrency policy advisor David Sacks—can be summarized along three axes: technological innovation, regulatory shocks, and industry restructuring.

According to their analysis, 2026 will not be just a year of technological progress but the beginning of a ‘disruptive scenario’ involving fundamental reorganization of the existing economic order. Particularly, the movement of capital, supply-demand imbalances in raw materials, and the rise of crypto assets are expected to completely change the portfolio strategies of global investors.

California Wealth Tax Crisis: A Signal of Capital Exodus

The first phenomenon to watch is the prediction that the wealth tax debate in California will emerge as the biggest issue of 2026. Currently, wealthy individuals are leaving California, with the total net worth of those who have already left estimated at around $50 billion. Including those still considering departure, there is concern that about half of the taxable assets in California’s budget could be drained.

If the wealth tax bill goes to vote in April, a large capital outflow driven by fear is expected. Particularly, startup founders face a serious dilemma. They may have to pay taxes on 5% of their illiquid stock holdings, and even if the company’s value plummets the following year, the tax debt already paid does not disappear. An even more problematic aspect is the super voting rights clause. Under this clause, stocks held by super voting rights holders are revalued according to voting multiples, potentially making more than five times the actual assets taxable. For example, a founder holding 52% voting rights in Google could face a tax rate significantly higher than their actual wealth (nominally 5%, but effectively 25–50%).

According to Polymarket’s prediction market data, the probability of the wealth tax bill going to vote has already surged from 45% to 80%, with an estimated 40% chance of passing. These policy risks are likely to drive entrepreneurs and capital to other states like Texas and Florida.

Emerging Industry Leaders in 2026: Copper, AI Robots, and the Return of IPOs

Amid structural changes in the economy, certain industries and assets are expected to experience explosive growth.

The Rise of Copper: The most notable commodity in 2026 is copper. Under the themes of deepening global protectionism and strengthening national economic resilience, there is analysis suggesting that supply-demand imbalances for key elements are severely underestimated. Copper, being the most useful, cheapest, highly ductile, and conductive material, is widely used—from data centers to semiconductor chips and weapon systems. Considering current supply trends, the global copper shortage could reach about 70% by 2040, making copper mining and related companies highly promising.

AI and Robotic Automation: Amazon is expected to lead industrial innovation in 2026. With its autonomous driving subsidiary Zoox progressing smoothly, the company is pushing for large-scale automation of its workforce. Amazon’s Austin logistics center already has a same-day delivery system supported by extensive automated warehouses and advanced robot networks. As Jason describes it, this could be the “corporate singularity,” where the benefits contributed by robots surpass those of human employees, marking the first large-scale case of such a scenario.

Resurgence of IPO Market: 2026 is forecasted to be the year of IPOs. Contrary to the trend of decreasing listed companies and increased privateization, hundreds of thousands of companies are expected to successfully go public, creating trillions of dollars in new market capitalization. This is part of the ‘Trump boom,’ where economic activation and deregulation are expected to reopen capital markets.

Expansion of Prediction Market Platforms: Polymarket, having started collaborating with the New York Stock Exchange, has evolved from a niche market to a platform providing insightful forecasts. By 2026, major exchanges like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Nasdaq are expected to add prediction market features, and these markets will likely evolve beyond simple trading platforms into sources of news and insights.

Industry Under Pressure in 2026: SaaS Structural Crisis and Regulatory Shadows

Meanwhile, some industries are expected to face structural difficulties.

Stagnation of the Software Industry Complex: The license SaaS industry targeting U.S. companies (worth about $3–4 trillion annually) is expected to face serious challenges. Currently, 90% of revenue in this industry comes from two stages: ‘maintenance’ and ‘migration.’ However, AI models and technological advances are expected to sharply reduce economic opportunities in these stages. The decline in stock prices of companies like ServiceNow, Workday, and DocuSign in 2025 signals these structural shifts. Companies still need software, but incremental revenues will decrease significantly, likely leading to deteriorating performance of publicly listed SaaS firms.

Funding Crisis for State Governments: U.S. state governments are predicted to face enormous funding difficulties. Increasingly evident cases of waste, fraud, and abuse across states raise doubts about their long-term ability to pay. More seriously, the massive unrealized pension liabilities are expected to surface in 2026. As awareness of fiscal black holes in state budgets grows, the credit ratings of state bonds could decline.

Systematic Decline of California: The shadow of the wealth tax and strict regulations continue to drive businesses and capital out of California. This could evolve from individual company relocations into a broader hollowing-out of the ecosystem.

Employment Crisis for Young White-Collar Workers: AI automation replacing entry-level jobs is reducing employment opportunities for new graduates. Many companies find implementing AI automation more efficient than training new employees. This is partly due to AI itself but also influenced by cultural factors. Some CEOs suggest that Generation Z graduates tend to lack motivation, organizational skills, and execution capabilities, which could be a temporary effect of COVID-19 or a deeper cultural shift.

Core Technological Innovations in 2026: Coding Assistants and Tool Use Evolution

The most significant technological advances in 2026 are expected in the fields of coding assistants and tool use. Just as the emergence of ChatGPT at the end of 2022 sparked a boom in generative AI, the enthusiasm for coding assistants is rapidly rising and is expected to become an increasingly important area by 2026. Changes in software development productivity will directly impact corporate efficiency and ultimately drive industry restructuring.

Geopolitical Reordering and the Emergence of New Crypto Assets

From an international perspective, 2026 is also expected to be a pivotal year. The economic and political conditions for resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict are maturing, likely impacting energy and raw material markets significantly. Simultaneously, geopolitical reorganization in the semiconductor industry is underway, with Huawei’s collaboration with SMIC gaining attention. They are exerting full effort and are expected to outperform Western expectations in 2026.

Amid technological innovation and industry restructuring, new forms of crypto assets are anticipated to emerge. Dollar stablecoins, prediction market-based tokens, and new blockchain assets reflecting national economic resilience are expected to become major investment targets in 2026.

Conclusion: 2026, an Economy Changing Like Fahrenheit Weather

The economic landscape of 2026 is expected to be a tumultuous year of simultaneous disruptive technology rejection, reorganization of the existing order, and emergence of new opportunities. Raw material surges driven by copper shortages, industry restructuring due to AI and robotic automation, the structural crisis of SaaS, and the rise of new crypto assets will require a complete rethinking of investment logic and business models. Particularly, policy uncertainties in California and geopolitical tensions will add complexity to these changes.

The top Silicon Valley investors agree on one point: 2026 will be a year of winners and losers—those unprepared will be pushed out, while agile responders will seize opportunities. Finding a comfortable investment environment like 70°F in Texas is important, but the ability to read market signals and quickly adjust portfolios will be the key to success or failure in 2026.