When Will the XRP Lawsuit End? Separating Facts From Ripple vs SEC Settlement Rumors

The question of when the XRP lawsuit will finally conclude continues to circulate across crypto communities, fueled primarily by speculation rather than substantive legal developments. For months, Ripple vs SEC discussions have been dominated less by actual court filings and more by an endless cycle of rumors, predictions, and social media conjecture about potential settlement dates.

The August 15 Speculation: Why It Never Materialized

Throughout mid-2025, one particular rumor gained traction: that there was a 70-90% probability of a Ripple and SEC settlement by August 15, 2025. Proponents of this timeline pointed to Judge Analisa Torres’ June 26 ruling as evidence that the regulatory agency faced mounting legal obstacles. The narrative suggested that the only remaining step was the SEC’s final status report before a swift resolution.

However, as we now know in early 2026, that date came and went without any settlement announcement. This disconnect between prediction and reality highlights a fundamental misunderstanding about how these complex regulatory cases actually proceed.

How the SEC’s Internal Process Actually Works

To understand why the August 15 deadline never materialized, it’s essential to understand the genuine mechanics behind the SEC’s decision-making process. Marc Fagel, a former SEC attorney with deep institutional knowledge, provided crucial clarification about the agency’s actual procedures.

Following Judge Torres’ June ruling, the SEC must undertake a formal process to prepare an enforcement recommendation. This internal review typically requires 1 to 2 months of careful deliberation. Once prepared, the recommendation moves through the bureaucratic pipeline to SEC commissioners, who must then convene and vote on any enforcement action—including whether to dismiss the case or continue prosecution. This voting requirement applies to active case dismissals but doesn’t apply to investigations that never resulted in formal charges.

The legal process isn’t moving unusually slowly. There’s no hidden agenda, no conspiracy, and no extraordinary delays affecting the Ripple case specifically. The timeline simply reflects how regulatory agencies operate when dealing with complex financial cases.

Why Status Updates Don’t Equal Deadlines

A critical source of confusion stems from the August 15 status update requirement. Both Ripple and the SEC were obligated to file status reports with the court around that date—this much is true. However, the existence of a filing deadline does not mean a settlement or dismissal would occur on that same date.

If either party intended to settle or withdraw their appeals, they would file dismissal paperwork with the court, potentially followed by an SEC public announcement. But these are separate from routine status updates. Filing a status update simply means providing the court with current information about case progress, not announcing a resolution.

What We Know About the Real Timeline

As of early 2026, the realistic answer to “when will the XRP lawsuit end” remains uncertain. The dismissal or settlement could occur within weeks, or it could take several more months. The pace depends entirely on the SEC’s internal decision-making process and whether commissioners reach consensus.

What we do know is that speculation about firm deadlines—whether August 15 or any other date—rarely aligns with the actual pace of federal regulatory proceedings. The XRP lawsuit will end when it ends, likely through a formal SEC commissioner vote rather than through prediction or wishful thinking.