U.S. inflation data release imminent, next week's macroeconomic market's key focus issue

Last week, the U.S. government shutdown, weak private sector employment, and adjustments in the AI sector’s valuation significantly lowered investors’ risk appetite. Next week, as the government shutdown continues, there is a possibility of changes to the economic data release schedule, and at the same time, the U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy direction are expected to become the market’s primary focus.

Uncertainty in U.S. Inflation Data Due to Government Function Paralysis

The prolonged government shutdown may delay or cancel scheduled economic indicators. In particular, the release schedule of key macroeconomic statistics such as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims, typically released on Thursdays, could become more fluid. This uncertainty itself can increase volatility in the spot market.

Senior Fed Officials’ Speeches and Competition to Interpret Rate Policy Signals

Next week, speeches by regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents will be the focus. On Wednesday at 10:20 PM, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams, a permanent FOMC voting member, will deliver a speech, followed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker at 11:00 PM, discussing financial technology. On Thursday at 1:15 AM, Atlanta Fed President Bostic is scheduled to speak.

On Friday, high-level comments that could signal rate policy will continue. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will speak at 1:15 AM on monetary policy, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will participate in a panel at 1:20 PM, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak again at 10:20 PM. Kansas City Fed President Esther George is scheduled to comment at 11:05 PM on economic outlook and interest rate policy direction. These remarks are expected to provide key signals regarding the Fed’s potential rate cuts and future monetary policy stance.

U.S. Inflation Data Release on Thursday as a Key Market Volatility Driver

Thursday is expected to be the focal point of next week’s macroeconomic schedule. Three major statistics will be released simultaneously: October U.S. CPI year-over-year and month-over-month changes, core CPI annual and monthly changes, and the weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending November 8. Since these data directly influence the Fed’s decision on next month’s rate cuts, the results of the inflation data release could significantly impact global asset markets.

Gold Waiting for a New Market Catalyst

The direction of gold in the spot market remains uncertain. Until the macroeconomic data such as U.S. inflation figures and statements from Fed officials provide concrete signals, a wait-and-see approach is expected. Ultimately, next week’s economic indicators and rate policy signals are likely to serve as new catalysts determining the future direction of gold prices.