Bitcoin's performance lags in the global asset rebound: How observers interpret the stagnation of BTC.D

As global markets bask in a rebound wave, with gold soaring over 80% amid high inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and interest rate uncertainties, Bitcoin has fallen into a notable performance crisis. Over the past year, BTC’s price has not only failed to fulfill its expected store of value function but has also declined by over 13%, starkly contrasting with its promises of “digital gold” and “inflation hedge tool.” Currently, Bitcoin is quoted at $88,030, and this stagnation phenomenon is prompting industry-wide deep reflections on its fundamentals and market psychology.

The Performance Gap Between Gold and Bitcoin: What the Data Says

In theory, assets that resist inflation should rise during currency devaluation. The precious metals sector has validated this theory—gold has increased by 80%. However, in the realm of “digital gold,” the situation is entirely different. Bitcoin’s lagging performance raises a sharp question: in an environment where metals and stocks offer better returns, who will still buy Bitcoin?

This divergence has sparked an interesting phenomenon: in the face of market skepticism, Bitcoin’s long-term supporters have not remained silent but instead proposed a series of alternative explanations regarding the nature of this phenomenon.

The True Story on the Supply Side: Intergenerational Transfer of Ownership

Data on institutional capital inflows is indeed substantial, but this does not necessarily mean prices are rising. Mark Connors, Director of Risk Dimensions Investment, hits the nail on the head: the current situation is not demand-driven but a reallocation event on the supply side.

The inflow of ETF funds at the institutional level is absorbing the accumulated supply released by early adopters over the past decade, which is essentially an intergenerational transfer of ownership. The Bitcoin network has not lost its appeal; rather, the structure of market participants has changed—large holders are gradually handing over to institutional investors.

“Muscle Memory” and Its Connection to Risk Assets

In uncertain environments, institutional investors tend to revert to familiar assets—that’s why gold and precious metals are favored in this cycle. Bitwise analyst Andre Dragosch points out that this phenomenon can be called the “muscle memory” effect: during panic, markets first chase known, proven stores of value.

But this is only superficial. The real issue is that Bitcoin itself is still regarded as a high-risk asset, despite its technical indicators for a store of value now outperforming gold. Bitcoin’s destiny is highly correlated with internet stocks and risk assets—this is not a failure but its coordinate of survival. When tech-related risk assets come under pressure, Bitcoin finds it hard to stand alone.

Price Index Adjustment in the Macro Environment

JPMorgan strategists’ latest argument offers another perspective: although the dollar is depreciating overall, the market does not see this as a lasting macro shift but as short-term liquidity and sentiment fluctuations. Because the market’s assessment of dollar weakness is temporary, Bitcoin is priced as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a reliable dollar hedge—this elevates gold and emerging markets to a diversified priority.

Undervalued Technical Fundamentals and Multiples Opportunities

From a technical standpoint, the data tells another story. According to the Mayer multiple relative to gold, Bitcoin is currently at a historically low level comparable to the post-FTX collapse in 2022. This indicates that, relative to the current global money supply and the macroeconomic environment of 2026, Bitcoin is significantly undervalued.

Charlie Morris, Chief Investment Officer at ByteTree, emphasizes that investors supporting both gold and Bitcoin use the same narrative—scarcity of supply, money printing, inflation pressure, geopolitical conflicts. However, Bitcoin represents a reserve asset in the digital world, and the current issue lies precisely in the real world, which explains why physical assets are prevailing at this stage.

The Outlook for a Long-Term Paradigm Shift

The common view among supporters is that this is not a failure of Bitcoin but a temporary misfocus of market psychology. Jessy Gilger, Chief Advisor at Gannett Wealth Advisors, points out that the current surge in gold is “temporary political distraction,” with institutions tending to retreat into familiar territory amid fear. But from a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin has demonstrated over 15 years of technological stability at the protocol layer. When the market finally recognizes that digital scarcity surpasses physical inheritance, capital will inevitably flow into Bitcoin to “catch up” with gold’s gains.

Anthony Pompliano, CEO of ProCap Financial, admits that Bitcoin has indeed served as an inflation hedge over the past half-century, but deflation may be approaching, requiring Bitcoin to find new demand engines. Despite rapid changes in macro environments and market participants, he remains optimistic in the long term.

David Parkinson, CEO of Musquet BtC Lightning, offers a more aggressive view: the phrase “digital gold failure” is excessive noise. Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing network effects continue to generate long-term returns beyond inflation and gold. Bitcoin is becoming the native monetary asset of the internet—this is not just a “hedge,” but a permanent solution to inflation. When traditional assets are overbought and capital flows toward more attractive valuations in Bitcoin, the former will be surpassed by the latter.

Peter Lane, CEO of Jacobi Asset Management, believes that ultimately we will see a delayed rotation into BTC, but currently investors are still chasing familiar and trusted assets. Rather than saying Bitcoin has failed, it is more accurate to say that the market is still re-pricing traditional and emerging assets.