Bitcoin is experiencing bearish trends relative to gold: historical parallels suggest a possible deepening of the decline

Bitcoin is in a state of significant lag behind gold, showing bearish characteristics over long time frames. BTC’s ratio to gold is roughly 18.46, which is 17% below its 200-week moving average (200WMA) of 21.90, reflecting a long-term trend of nearly four years. This is in stark contrast to the recent peak in December 2024, when the ratio reached around 40.9.

Such a discrepancy calls into question the established narrative of bitcoin as “digital gold.” Although gold is heading for new all-time highs, approaching $4,900 per ounce and gaining roughly 12% since the beginning of the year, bitcoin has shown a 14.12% decline over the same period, remaining at $87.41K.

Current State of the Ratio: When Bearish Waves Dominate BTC Dynamics

A five-year comparison reveals an interesting picture: gold has outperformed Bitcoin with a gain of about 160% versus 150% for BTC. However, this does not reflect the full picture of the bearish trends that have been particularly noticeable in recent months. Bitcoin’s 55% decline against gold since December 2024 demonstrates the speed at which market preferences have shifted in favor of traditional safe-haven assets.

Such a dislocation began in November 2025, suggesting the potential for a prolonged period of weakness if history repeats itself according to known cycles.

Historical Bear Cycles: A Comparison of 2018, 2022 and 2024

Previous periods show more radical deviations of the ratio from the long-term average. In the 2022 bear cycle, the ratio fell more than 30% below 200WMA and remained in this range for over a year. The drop from the peak was then 77%, which indicates a significant reassessment of the status of bitcoin by the market in comparison with gold.

Even more dramatic was the 84% drop in the 2017-2018 cycle, when bearish pressures reached extreme levels. The current 55% decline is between these historic declines, but given that the downturn only began in November, it could deepen significantly if the trajectories of past cycles are followed.

What Could Happen Next: Forecast Based on Previous Trends

If history repeats itself on the same scale, the BTC-to-gold ratio could potentially remain well below 200WMA until the end of 2026. The 2022 analogy suggests that the period for the ratio to recover to the long-term mean could take more than a year, giving gold an extended window to demonstrate relative strength.

The current dynamics suggest that bearish bearish trends in the BTC-gold ratio remain a dominant theme that will require a significant rethinking of the positions of large investors. The market clearly favors traditional safe-haven assets, leaving Bitcoin with a historically weak asset in its comparison to the precious metal.