Portugal tackles Polymarket: How Commonwealth countries regulate predictive markets

The action taken by Portugal against Polymarket represents a new chapter in the global strategy of containing online predictive markets. With regulators spread across every continent adopting increasingly strict stances, commonwealth countries and many other nations are drawing a clear line with respect to political event betting platforms. The Portuguese decision, although limited to its territory, reflects a broader regulatory model that is gaining momentum.

SRIJ ordered to the platform: closure orders after the elections

The Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), Portugal’s gambling control authority, has ordered Polymarket to cease its operations in the country within 48 hours. The measure stems from a wave of activity recorded on the platform during the presidential elections on January 18, when betting volumes exceeded 103 million euros, equivalent to about 120 million dollars.

According to Rádio Renascença, traffic on the platform during the election period reached unprecedented levels in the Portuguese context. The SRIJ pointed out that Polymarket does not hold any license to operate legally in the country and that its activity directly violates the current national legislation.

The Portuguese regulatory framework: when political betting becomes prohibited

In Portugal, betting on the outcomes of political events is an illegal activity according to the 2015 online gambling legislation. The law only allows betting on sporting events, casino games and horse racing, explicitly excluding any form of betting on political, national or international issues.

The SRIJ officially stated: “The website is not allowed to offer betting in Portugal, as national law prohibits betting operations concerning political events, whether national or international.” This position reflects a narrow but consistent interpretation of national legislation, aimed at protecting the integrity of the electoral process.

Polymarket in the global crosshairs: from restrictions in over 30 countries to commonwealth countries

Polymarket, launched in 2020, is no stranger to geographical limitations imposed by regulators. The blockchain-based predictive marketplace platform already operates under significant constraints in over 30 countries, including Singapore, Russia, Belgium, Italy, and, most recently, Ukraine. Some countries have blacklisted the site as internet service providers, while others, such as France, only allow access in “view” mode without the possibility of making transactions.

Despite the formal ban, Polymarket still remains accessible from much of Portugal. However, regulators are likely to order internet service providers to implement the block in the coming days. Other predictive marketplace platforms, such as Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless, continue to be accessible in Portuguese territory for the time being.

The Consequences for Predictive Markets: An Accelerating Global Trend

The regulatory pressure on Polymarket is not an isolated incident, but rather a manifestation of the growing awareness among commonwealth countries and other jurisdictions regarding the risks associated with predictive markets. As the platform is confronted with this increasingly dense web of restrictions, the predictive markets industry as a whole faces a push for more regulation.

Strategies vary: some countries opt for total blockade, others for partial limitations, but the goal remains consistent: to protect citizens from unauthorized forms of gambling and preserve the integrity of political events. As more nations follow Portugal’s lead, Polymarket and similar platforms may find themselves increasingly confined to a limited number of global markets.