January 30 | ETH trend analysis

Core Perspectives

Current price: $2,727.09 (as of January 30, 2026)

Short-term outlook: Bearish but there is an expectation of a technical rebound. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour RSIs are in the heavily oversold region (21.99 and 27.25), indicating that short-term selling pressure has reached extreme levels. More than $400 million in long liquidations in the past 24 hours have been basically completed, and there is a need for an oversold rebound on the technical side. However, the macro environment remains under pressure, including geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s hawkish policy stance, and the overall trend remains suppressed by the downward channel, with any rebound likely to face strong resistance near $3,070.

Key support: $2,693 (lower daily Bollinger Band position) Key resistance: $3,070 (20-day simple moving average and middle Bollinger band)

Market Background and Trend Analysis

In the past 24 hours, the price of ETH has dropped sharply from around $3,000 to $2,727, a drop of nearly 10%. The plunge was mainly caused by the superposition of multiple macro negative factors:

Macro pressure is released in a concentrated manner: The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran has triggered a widespread sell-off in risk assets, and investors have turned to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and expressed a hawkish stance, weakening market expectations for loose monetary policy. Concerns about a potential U.S. government shutdown and the impact of winter storms on infrastructure have further fueled market panic.

Technology stocks fell in tandem: After Microsoft reported earnings reports of increased AI spending but slowing cloud computing growth, technology stocks generally pulled back, the Nasdaq index fell about 2.3%, and the cryptocurrency market showed a high degree of correlation with traditional technology stocks.

The derivatives market has increased volatility: The total liquidation volume of the ETH derivatives market reached $429 million in 24 hours, of which long liquidations accounted for 94%, indicating that leveraged longs were liquidated from the market on a large scale. Total open interest remains at a high level of $70.4 billion, with an average funding rate of -0.0029%, indicating a neutral bearish market sentiment.

On-chain data signals: On January 29, the net inflow of ETH exchanges was about 9,295, indicating that some holders transferred their assets to exchanges to prepare for sale, forming a bearish signal in the short term. The exchange reserve remained relatively stable at 16.27 million, and there were no large-scale whale movements.

Technical analysis: From the technical indicators, ETH is showing bearish signals on all major timeframes. The 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily MACD histograms are negative and continue to expand, and the price is well below the moving averages of each period (20-day SMA at $3,070 and 200-day SMA at $3,669). The Bollinger Bands show that the price has touched the lower band at $2,693, which usually means that short-term oversold conditions could trigger a technical rally.

On the whole, the current market is in a state of extreme panic, technical indicators show that it is seriously oversold, and there is a need for rebound repair in the short term. However, multiple macro pressures remain, and any rally could first test the $3,070 resistance level. Investors should closely monitor the defense of the key support level at $2,693, as a valid break could open up further downside.