Bitcoin and Gold Forecast: When BTC drops below 85K, central banks' gold reserves drive prices upward

While Bitcoin experiences ongoing pressure and has recently hovered around $83,500, market attention is increasingly focused on what lies ahead for individual assets in the coming months and years. Popular analyst forecasts offer very different scenarios: gold heading to unprecedented heights, while Bitcoin faces structural influences that analysts currently attribute more to the macroeconomic environment than to long-term technological threats. At the same time, the question re-emerges whether factors like quantum computers may already be influencing market prices or if it is merely a speculative story without real impact on current behavior.

Observation Set: Gold Reserves Drive Prices, Bitcoin Lags

Since November 2024, when Donald Trump won the US elections, market proportions have shifted significantly. While traditional safe-haven assets and especially gold are experiencing impressive gains, Bitcoin is in a markedly worse position:

Performance since November 2024:

• Bitcoin: −2.6%
• Silver: +205%
• Gold: +83%
• Nasdaq: +24%
• S&P 500: +17.6%

Gold reached new all-time highs near $4,930 per ounce, driven by a new wave of demand from central banks that are dramatically increasing their reserves. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell to around $83,500 — approximately 34% below its all-time high from 2025, when the curve briefly surged to $126,080. This comparative view sends a clear signal: in the current macroeconomic environment, traditional safe havens perform better than volatile crypto assets.

Gold Forecasts Point Toward Astronomical Numbers

Valuable insights from experienced analysts offer very optimistic forecasts for precious metals over the next few years. Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments published data suggesting gold could gradually reach prices of $12,000 to $23,000 per ounce within three to eight years. His thesis is supported by three key factors:

• Record-breaking pace of gold purchases by central banks
• Continuous fiat currency printing exceeding 10% annually
• Active strategy by China to increase its gold reserves
• Growing investor distrust in government bonds

Edwards emphasizes that current overbought technical levels (RSI above 70) are driven by structural demand from institutions, not retail speculation. If the current cycle truly resembles the expansive period of the 20th century, the potential for further appreciation remains significant.

Analysis: What’s Behind Bitcoin’s Drop — Quantum Concerns or Market Structure?

Recent weak results of Bitcoin have sparked speculation among some commentators that fears of future quantum computing may already be manifesting. Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures revived this argument in recent days, claiming that the “mysterious” failure of Bitcoin reveals hidden market conditions regarding technological risks. According to him, “Bitcoin underperforms due to the threat of quantum risk.”

However, researchers engaged in on-chain analysis, such as Checkonchain (@Checkmatey), and long-term market participants vehemently reject this thesis. They see it more as classic market mechanisms driven by supply and demand. Checkonchain draws a parallel with gold: “State institutions are buying gold instead of government bonds — a clear signal of capital allocation.” Similarly, in 2025, Bitcoin is experiencing significant distribution from long-term holders, which is only now being absorbed by newer demand from ETF funds and institutional capital.

Investor and theorist Vijay Boyapati offers a more practical explanation: “The reality is simple — the psychological level of $100,000 triggered a huge outflow from large holders, which the market has yet to absorb.” Chain data indeed shows increased distribution of long-held coins around six-figure prices.

Quantum Risk in the Long Term: Threat, but Not Near

Developers and architects of Bitcoin consistently state that quantum computers, while a long-term relevant topic, remain far from practical implementation that would impact the market today. Shor’s algorithm and the possibility of breaking elliptic curve cryptography are theoretical considerations, not current realities.

Adam Back of Blockstream and other key developers have already paved the way for migration using the BIP-360 proposal, which allows gradual transitions to quantum-resistant address formats. This way, any network transformation would occur over years or decades, not market cycles. According to their forecasts, quantum risk is an episode of the future, not a current problem.

Nevertheless, some from the traditional financial sector warn about it. Christopher Wood from Jefferies recently removed Bitcoin from a model portfolio, citing long-term quantum concerns as one of the reasons. While it is acknowledged that technological adaptation of Bitcoin is theoretically possible, the critical question remains the time horizon — which experts say is decades, not quarters.

Current Forecast: Macro Factors Will Continue to Dominate

For now, market participants believe that Bitcoin will remain influenced by macroeconomic forces that will determine its course in the coming months:

• Rising yields on government bonds
• Geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty
• Sharp rotation of capital into gold and other traditional safe assets
• Priority of capital preservation over speculative growth

If Bitcoin regains the zone of $91,000–$93,500, it could regain upward momentum. Failure to do so would lead to testing support in the $85,000–$88,000 range. As macroeconomic conditions clarify — or change sharply — analysts expect that only then will Bitcoin maintain its own momentum independent of external factors.

Looking at forecasts for the coming months and years, it seems clear that traditional assets, especially gold, are currently benefiting from a more aggressive institutional stance, while Bitcoin awaits renewed confidence in cryptographic and technological innovations as a driver of growth.