February 2 | ETH Price Movement Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $2,287.58 (as of February 2, 2026) Short-term Outlook: Technical indicators show severe overselling, with large-scale long liquidations in the derivatives market. There is a technical rebound demand, but the overall trend remains weak. Key Support: $2,235 - $2,314 Key Resistance: $2,824 (EMA 20), $2,943 (Middle Bollinger Band)

Technical Analysis

Price Movement Review

ETH experienced a rollercoaster in January 2026: surged to $3,336.72 on January 14, then began to retrace, oscillated around $3,000 at the end of January, and accelerated downward in early February, reaching a low of $2,235.66. The current price of $2,287.58 is down 31.4% from the monthly high.

Key Technical Indicators

• RSI severely oversold: 1-hour 34.2, 4-hour 19.6, daily 24.0, all in oversold territory (<30), with the 4-hour approaching extreme oversold levels (<20).
• MACD bearish pattern: MACD values are negative across all timeframes, with the daily MACD histogram at -84.3, indicating ongoing downward momentum.
• Bollinger Band lower band breakout: Price has broken below the daily Bollinger Band lower band at $2,314.58, typically signaling oversold conditions.

Moving Average System

• Price has fallen below all major moving averages (EMA20 at $2,824, SMA50 at $2,997, SMA200 at $3,654).
• EMA20 ($2,824) has become a key resistance level in the near term.
• Middle Bollinger Band at $2,943 forms a secondary resistance.

Derivatives Market Signals

Liquidation Data

In the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $185 million, with longs at $132 million and shorts at $53 million. Long liquidations account for 71.2%, indicating leveraged longs have suffered significant losses.

Funding Rates

Average funding rate is -0.8557%, a negative rate indicating market dominance by shorts. However, extreme negative rates often suggest overly pessimistic market sentiment, which could lead to a rebound.

Market Assessment and Outlook

High Probability of a Rebound from Oversold Conditions

The current technical picture shows typical oversold features: RSI at extreme lows, price breaking below Bollinger Band lower band, and large-scale long liquidations in the derivatives market. Historical experience suggests this combination often precedes a short-term rebound.

But the Overall Trend Has Not Reversed

Despite severe overselling, MACD still indicates downward momentum, and the price has not reclaimed any key moving averages. The overall trend remains bearish. Any rebound will likely face resistance at $2,824 (EMA20) and $2,943 (Middle Bollinger Band).

Key Levels to Watch

• Support Zone: $2,235 - $2,314 (recent lows + Bollinger Band lower band)
• Resistance Levels: $2,824 (EMA20), $2,943 (Middle Bollinger Band)
• Critical Threshold: Whether ETH can regain $2,824 will determine the strength of any rebound.

Risk Warnings

1. Downside Risk: If support at $2,235 breaks, further decline toward the psychological level of $2,000 is possible.
2. Limited Rebound Space: Even if a technical rebound occurs, resistance near $2,943 is expected to be strong.
3. Market Sentiment: Derivatives data shows market sentiment remains fragile; caution is needed against further panic selling.

Currently, ETH is caught between technical overselling and a downward trend. There is short-term rebound potential, but space is limited. Investors should focus on the defense of the $2,235 support level and the breakthrough of the $2,824 resistance level.