BTC Technical Outlook: Breakdown From Range Support, Entering Deep Corrective Phase

BTC has been rejected from the $108K–$116K macro supply zone (0.618–0.786 Fib) and has now broken down from its multi-week consolidation structure. That rejection marked a distribution top, followed by a strong markdown phase into late January and early February.

Recent price action shows BTC losing the $86.9K (0.236 Fib) level and flushing into the $79K–$75K macro demand zone, where buyers are now attempting to absorb sell pressure. Momentum is weak, and the higher-timeframe trend remains bearish.

EMA Structure (Bearish Bias, No Trend Reversal Yet)

20 EMA: $86,426
50 EMA: $89,374
100 EMA: $93,382
200 EMA: $97,581

BTC is trading below all major EMAs, confirming a bearish medium- and long-term structure. The $93.3K–$97.6K zone now acts as major dynamic resistance.

As long as BTC remains below the 100 & 200 EMA cluster, upside is capped and any bounce is considered corrective.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: $126,123
0.786 Fib: $115,137
0.618 Fib: $106,512
0.5 Fib: $100,455
0.382 Fib: $94,397
0.236 Fib: $86,902
Fib 0: $74,787

BTC has lost the 0.236 Fib ($86.9K) and is now trading just above the Fib 0 base ($74.8K), placing price in a deep retracement zone after the cycle top.

A sustained reclaim of $86.9K–$94.4K would be required to shift structure back toward neutral.

Structural Context

Price is now inside a descending corrective channel, with lower highs and lower lows since the November peak. While short-term demand is visible near $75K–$79K, there is no confirmed base yet.

For a structural reversal, BTC must form a range and reclaim $86.9K–$94.4K with strong acceptance.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 30–31

RSI is sitting near oversold territory, showing bearish momentum dominance. While short-term relief bounces are possible, momentum does not yet support a trend reversal.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance
• $86,900 (0.236 Fib)
• $94,400 (0.382 Fib)
• $100,400 (0.5 Fib)
• $106,500 (0.618 Fib)

Support
• $79,000–$75,000 (macro demand)
• $74,800 (Fib 0 / cycle base)

📌 Summary

BTC has completed a distribution → breakdown → markdown cycle from the November highs. Price is now in a deep corrective phase with heavy resistance overhead. Until BTC can reclaim $86.9K–$94.4K and build structure above it, the trend remains bearish and corrective, not bullish.

$BTC ‌