#加密市场观察

Today marks my 594th consecutive day of posting updates, without a single break. Every post is prepared with care, not just rushed out. [微笑] If you think I am a serious person, you can walk with me, and I hope the daily content can help you. The world is vast, and I am small. Follow me so you don’t have to look hard. [微笑][微笑]

The impact of the gold and silver crash has also affected this circle. Not only has capital not flowed back in, but panic has also been triggered. Fake coins are even more disastrous, with some prices approaching the 10.10 black swan level. Those who have managed to survive until now have surpassed 90% of the market.

There have been two major surges in gold and silver historically, and both ended badly. The first was from 1979 to 1980, when gold jumped from $200 to $850 in a year. After peaking, gold was halved in two months, and silver dropped by two-thirds, entering a 20-year long freeze period. The second was from 2010 to 2011, when gold rose from 1000 to 1921, and silver again reached 50. After the surge, gold experienced a maximum retracement of 45%, and silver fell by 70%, followed by years of sideways decline.

The commonality between these two instances is clear: they were not normal bull markets but emotional pricing under extreme macroeconomic pressure. Oil crises, hyperinflation, and post-financial crisis liquidity injections— the crazier the rise, the harsher the fall afterward, almost becoming a rule.

Now, this cycle has a new script: central banks buying gold, de-dollarization, and silver along with industrial demand supporting the price. Many believe this time is different; with central banks involved, the decline will be limited. But history repeatedly shows one thing: whenever there is such a level of explosive growth, retracements are never gentle. Those who believe in a long-term gold bull run and those who think the crypto market still has more downside are in the same camp. #加密市场观察
Today marks my 594th consecutive day of posting updates, without a single break. Every post is prepared with care, not just rushed out. [微笑] If you think I am a serious person, you can walk with me, and I hope the daily content can help you. The world is vast, and I am small. Follow me so you don’t have to look hard. [微笑][微笑]

The impact of the gold and silver crash has also affected this circle. Not only has capital not flowed back in, but panic has also been triggered. Fake coins are even more disastrous, with some prices approaching the 10.10 black swan level. Those who have managed to survive until now have surpassed 90% of the market.

There have been two major surges in gold and silver historically, and both ended badly. The first was from 1979 to 1980, when gold jumped from $200 to $850 in a year. After peaking, gold was halved in two months, and silver dropped by two-thirds, entering a 20-year long freeze period. The second was from 2010 to 2011, when gold rose from 1000 to 1921, and silver again reached 50. After the surge, gold experienced a maximum retracement of 45%, and silver fell by 70%, followed by years of sideways decline.

The commonality between these two instances is clear: they were not normal bull markets but emotional pricing under extreme macroeconomic pressure. Oil crises, hyperinflation, and post-financial crisis liquidity injections— the crazier the rise, the harsher the fall afterward, almost becoming a rule.

Now, this cycle has a new script: central banks buying gold, de-dollarization, and silver along with industrial demand supporting the price. Many believe this time is different; with central banks involved, the decline will be limited. But history repeatedly shows one thing: whenever there is such a level of explosive growth, retracements are never gentle. Those who believe in a long-term gold bull run and those who think the crypto market still has more downside are in the same camp.