Forecast market competition heats up, Hyperliquid enters strongly with "Outcomes"

Author: Seed.eth, Bitpush News

Hyperliquid, the leading player in the crypto derivatives space, is now expanding into another explosive trillion-dollar market: prediction markets.

Today, Hyperliquid officially announced the testing of a new feature called “Outcomes.” This news immediately ignited enthusiasm in the secondary market, with its native token HYPE surging over 10% within 24 hours, breaking above the $30 mark.

In a landscape dominated by Polymarket, Kalshi, and Coinbase, Hyperliquid’s entry is not simply “following the trend,” but rather leveraging its native underlying performance to redefine the game rules.

What is Outcomes

According to the official HIP-4 proposal, Outcomes (Result Contracts) is not just a simple betting interface. Its design hinges on three core principles:

1. Full Collateralization, No Liquidation Risk

Unlike leveraged perpetual contracts, Outcomes follows the principle of “what you have is what you can do.” It uses full collateralization and settles within a fixed range. This means that regardless of market volatility, as long as it is not the settlement date, traders’ positions will not face forced liquidation, fundamentally removing liquidation risk.

2. Nonlinear Settlement, Greater Strategic Flexibility

Outcomes introduces a nonlinear settlement mechanism. For traders, this is akin to gaining near-option-like flexibility, allowing them to build more complex hedging tools. No longer limited to simple “Yes” or “No” binary bets, this opens up larger strategic space for risk management and portfolio strategies.

3. Native Integration, Connecting Liquidity

Outcomes is deeply integrated into Hyperliquid’s underlying chain HyperCore and priced in the native stablecoin USDH. More importantly, it can share full-margin collateral with existing spot and perpetual markets on the platform. This means users can seamlessly connect multiple trading strategies within the same margin account, truly enabling liquidity sharing and reuse.

Multiple Factions: Who Will Win the Prediction Market?

Currently, prediction markets are at a “browser wars of 1995” stage, forming four distinct business paths:

• Polymarket sells “opinions,” serving as a social hotspot indicator;
• Kalshi emphasizes “compliance,” attracting US-based funds seeking legal risk avoidance;
• Coinbase takes a “dimensionality reduction” approach, turning prediction markets into mainstream consumer products via built-in app features;
• Hyperliquid’s approach is the most hardcore: it doesn’t require clicking Yes or No on a webpage. Instead, it allows you to short BTC while conveniently buying an Outcomes contract on “Non-farm Payrolls exceeding expectations” to hedge macro risks.

The community’s current focus is on the synergistic effects of HIP-3 (permissionless token listing) and HIP-4 (Outcomes).

Under this framework, Hyperliquid’s evolution path is clear: first, the official deploys “canonical markets” based on objective data sources, such as interest rates and macroeconomic indicators; then, permissionless deployment will follow.

This strategy is backed by Hyperliquid’s legendary team advantage. It’s hard to imagine that a giant with an annual revenue exceeding $1.1 billion and trading volume comparable to top-tier CEXs is supported by a core team of only about 11 people. This team, composed of Harvard and MIT scholars and top quantitative hedge fund elites, achieves an astonishing per-person annual contribution of over $100 million. Thanks to its lean structure and short decision-making paths, Hyperliquid can iterate rapidly.

A senior DeFi observer said: “Coinbase’s entry validates the business model, but it remains centralized. Hyperliquid’s Outcomes challenge a proposition: the future of prediction markets isn’t social media, but financialization. When prediction results become as smooth as buying and selling stocks and can share margin with futures, the imagination space for on-chain finance truly opens.”

HYPE Underestimated?

As the crypto options market matures, Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 open interest (OI) has surged past $1 billion, with 24-hour platform trading volume hitting $4.8 billion, setting a new record.

Regarding this development, Blockworks researcher Shaunda Devens believes this move further supports Hyperliquid’s valuation upside.

Devens pointed out that even if HIP-4 captures 100% of Polymarket’s trading volume, its contribution to Hyperliquid’s revenue would be only about 5%.

This figure may seem surprising at first glance, but the deeper logic is that the perpetual contract market (including long-tail assets brought by HIP-3) is enormous. Devens believes that Hyperliquid’s current valuation of around $7 billion, relative to Polymarket’s latest valuation of $10 billion (based on 2025 funding data), is clearly undervalued. The launch of Outcomes mainly aims to complement its comprehensive financial matrix.

Despite the market’s bullish sentiment, it should be noted that Outcomes is still in the testnet stage, and the exact timeline for mainnet deployment has not yet been announced. However, with the explosion of the HyperEVM ecosystem, mainstream service providers like Kalshi or Crypto.com could theoretically migrate their protocols to Hyperliquid’s chain using HIP-4.

In summary, prediction markets are entering the best era yet. In the US, thanks to regulatory transparency, Kalshi and Coinbase’s collaboration has expanded prediction markets across all 50 states; similar growth momentum is also strong in the EU and Asia. For Hyperliquid, Outcomes is not just a simple “betting game,” but an essential piece in building an “on-chain Wall Street.”