Arabica Coffee Price Today Rises as Dollar Weakens and Brazil's Exports Shrink

Arabica coffee price today extended gains on Friday, with the March contract climbing 0.92%, while its robusta counterpart surged 2.88% to touch a 1.5-month peak. The rally reflects a broader market recovery driven by currency headwinds and constrained supply dynamics from major producing regions. Currency weakness has emerged as a critical catalyst, with the dollar index retreating to a 3.5-month low and triggering aggressive short covering across commodity markets, including coffee.

The supply-side picture presents a complex landscape that’s reshaping arabica coffee price today and the broader coffee market. Brazil, the world’s dominant arabica producer, reported a sharp decline in green coffee exports. According to Cecafe data from January, Brazil’s December coffee shipments fell 18.4% to 2.86 million bags, with arabica exports sliding 10% year-over-year to 2.6 million bags. The severity of the contraction signals tightening supply conditions that are bolstering prices across both arabica and robusta segments.

Dollar Weakness Fuels Arabica Coffee Price Rally

Currency movements are playing an outsized role in today’s coffee market dynamics. The dollar index’s decline to a 3.5-month low has reversed previous headwinds, allowing short-covering to flourish in commodities. This currency effect, combined with diminishing export flows from Brazil, has created a perfect environment for price appreciation. Traders have responded by bidding up arabica coffee price today and other coffee futures as the outlook shifts from oversupply to tightness.

Brazil’s Shrinking Coffee Exports Support Market

Beyond the currency factor, Brazil’s production challenges are lending fundamental support to prices. Minas Gerais, the nation’s largest arabica-growing region, received only 33.9 mm of rainfall during the week ending January 16—equivalent to just 53% of historical averages. This below-normal moisture threatens future harvests and amplifies concerns about supply adequacy heading into 2026.

Export data reinforces the supply tightness narrative. Brazil’s December green coffee shipments contracted sharply, with arabica exports declining 10% year-over-year. While robusta exports fell even more dramatically—plunging 61% year-over-year to 222,147 bags—the arabica contraction remains significant enough to support price floors. These export declines mirror the production pressures emerging from weather constraints.

Vietnam’s Robusta Surge Pressures Broader Prices

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, presents a countervailing supply dynamic. Vietnamese coffee exports jumped 17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million tonnes in 2025, signaling abundant supplies from Southeast Asia. Projections show Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output climbing 6% year-over-year to 1.76 million tonnes (29.4 million bags), marking a 4-year high. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association indicated production could surge 10% higher than the prior crop year if weather remains favorable.

This robust Vietnamese supply is exerting downward pressure on robusta prices specifically, though the global arabica picture remains more balanced. Inventory dynamics are also complicating the market’s direction. While ICE arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags in November, they rebounded to 461,829 bags by late January, reducing the urgency of supply concerns. Robusta stocks similarly recovered from December lows, climbing to 4,609 lots by Friday.

Global Output Forecasts Point to Price Headwinds

Brazil’s production outlook adds another layer of complexity to arabica coffee price forecasts. Conab raised its 2025 total coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags in early December, suggesting Brazil will maintain substantial output despite regional weather challenges. For 2025/26, USDA projections indicate Brazil’s coffee production will decline 3.1% year-over-year to 63 million bags—a significant retreat from prior years.

The USDA’s broader global forecast reveals the structural headwinds facing prices. World coffee production in 2025/26 is projected to reach a record 178.848 million bags, up 2.0% year-over-year. Importantly, arabica production is expected to contract 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta output surges 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. These divergent trajectories mean arabica coffee price today may find support from reduced availability, even as oversupply pressures emerge globally.

Ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25, signaling a modest tightening of global inventories. Meanwhile, the International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports in the current marketing year declined 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags, underscoring that growth remains constrained despite Vietnam’s robust output.

The convergence of currency weakness, Brazilian supply pressure, and modest global inventory draws has created a favorable backdrop for arabica coffee price appreciation near term. However, Vietnam’s abundant robusta production and forward production forecasts suggest any rallies may face resistance at higher price levels, keeping the market’s medium-term outlook balanced between supply support and production abundance.