Industrial Securities: The A-share profit recovery trend is further confirmed, with performance clues concentrated on three main lines

A-shares Profit Recovery Trend Further Confirmed

According to the latest disclosure rules from the stock exchanges regarding performance forecasts, all sectors are currently disclosing annual performance forecasts based on certain conditions (see Figure 1). As of January 30, 2026, out of a total of 5,352 listed companies on the A-share market (excluding companies listed within the past year, same below), 2,982 have released their 2025 annual reports/quick reports/performance forecasts, with an actual disclosure rate (percentage of companies) of 55.72%. Among them, 3,151 companies are listed on the main board, with 1,646 disclosures, a disclosure rate of 52.24%; 1,359 companies are listed on the ChiNext board, with 844 disclosures, a rate of 62.10%; 581 companies are on the STAR Market, with 371 disclosures, a rate of 63.86%; and 261 companies are on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with 121 disclosures, a rate of 46.36%.

The positive forecast rate for 2025 annual reports has slightly rebounded compared to the same period last year. We categorize the forecast types into two groups: positive (including slight increase, turnaround, continued profit, and pre-increase) and cautious (including slight decrease, initial loss, continued loss, and pre-decrease). The positive forecast rate is the proportion of companies with expected profits. Among the companies that have disclosed forecast types, there are 1,069 positive and 1,846 cautious forecasts [1]; the overall positive forecast rate for A-shares is 36.67%, up from 33.38% in 2024.

[1] Additionally, 67 companies directly released annual reports/quick reports.

Looking at companies that have disclosed annual report performance, the median and overall year-over-year (YoY) growth rates of net profit for all A-shares in 2025 are 17.94% and 37.26%, respectively, continuing to improve from the first three quarters’ 14.15% (overall method), further confirming the trend of profit recovery.

Industry Clues: AI, Price Increases, Going Global

Based on the performance forecast situation across industries and the reasons behind leading companies’ performance changes, the main performance clues in 2025 focus on three main themes: AI demand (electronics, communications, computers, machinery, etc.), price increases (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, etc.), and going global (pharmaceuticals, batteries, wind power, gaming, etc.).

Primary industries: In terms of positive forecast rates, the top five are Non-bank Financials (87.5%), Non-ferrous Metals (65.8%), Beauty & Personal Care (53.8%), Automobiles (53.7%), and Utilities (50.9%). In terms of median performance growth rates, the top five are Non-ferrous Metals (69.0%), Non-bank Financials (67.6%), Steel (59.2%), Automobiles (43.6%), and Textiles & Apparel (40.8%).

Secondary industries (disclosure proportion >40%): In terms of positive forecast rates, the top ten are Precious Metals (100%), Securities (100%), Ground Military Equipment (77.8%), Wind Power Equipment (68.4%), Energy Metals (66.7%), Other Electronics (66.7%), Motorcycles and Others (66.7%), Marine Equipment (57.1%), Components (56.7%), Small Metals (54.5%), and Agrochemical Products (54.5%, tied). In terms of median performance growth rates, the top ten are Ground Military Equipment (111.7%), Aerospace Airports (93.6%), Agrochemical Products (84.2%), Marine Equipment (84.1%), Gas (76.2%), Precious Metals (75.7%), Securities (73.2%), Medical Services (71.1%), Industrial Metals (69.4%), Special Steel (64.5%), and Animal Healthcare (62.8%).

Risk Reminder

Data may be incomplete or inconsistent; the low disclosure rate of performance forecasts may not fully represent actual performance conditions, etc.

(Source: Industrial Securities)