Sudan in the Center of Geoeconomic Rivalry: Saudi Arabia Challenges the UAE's Dominance in the Gold Market

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are escalating in an unexpected domain: strategic gold trade from Sudan. The conflict is not only political but also economic, reflecting a broader struggle for regional influence in North Africa.

Dramatic Shift in Sudanese Gold Trade

On January 29, a move with profound implications for the African gold market was announced. Saudi Arabia plans to purchase gold directly from Sudan, a decision that marks a radical break from the existing trade structure. Previously, the United Arab Emirates held near-monopoly control over Sudanese gold exports. This change is not accidental but a strategic initiative aimed at weakening the UAE’s influence in the African region.

In the first nine months of 2024, Sudan exported approximately 10.9 tons of gold, valued at $1.05 billion. The overwhelming majority of these trade flows were channeled to the United Arab Emirates, consolidating the UAE’s position as the regional epicenter of African gold trade.

Why the United Arab Emirates Are Losing Their Trade Advantage

The dynamics shifted dramatically after Sudan officially accused the UAE of direct interference in the country’s civil conflict. These serious accusations culminated in the severance of diplomatic relations last year, forcing Khartoum to seek urgent alternative export routes. The Sudanese military government faces a severe economic crisis and desperately needs revenue from gold sales.

The Saudi Gold Refining Company has officially opened negotiations, expressing willingness to “immediately procure gold” directly from Sudanese authorities. This offer comes at a time when Sudan is in dire need of new trading partners.

Strategic Implications of the Geoeconomic Competition

Analysts observe that this development marks a significant escalation in the competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, opening potential entirely new trade fronts in the eastern African region. However, some experts warn that Saudi Arabia may face considerable obstacles in attempting to fully replace the central role the UAE has played in Sudanese exports in the short term. According to these analytical perspectives, the Saudi initiative might be more of a political statement than a viable long-term strategy.

Economic Consequences for Sudan and the Global Market

The devastating civil conflict in Sudan dramatically worsens the situation. Authorities estimate that about 80% of total gold production could be diverted to illegal circuits, representing an estimated annual loss of $5 billion for the economy. In the context of this deep financial crisis, the flow of Sudanese gold becomes not only a critical source of revenue but also a matter of national economic security.

As Saudi Arabia intensifies its involvement in the Sudanese gold sector, the trade structure in the African region could undergo fundamental transformations. New players may create alternative export opportunities but also pose risks related to stability and transparency in gold trade.