Bitcoin and Its 4-Year Cycles: What Do Historical Patterns Tell Us?

With a current price of $69.60K and a 6.76% drop in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin continues to develop within a pattern that investors have been studying for years. If the historical structure remains intact, data suggests a projected support target around $29,000 for October 2026. This is not emotion-driven speculation but an analysis based on cycles that have shown remarkable consistency in market behavior.

The Repeated Pattern: How Major Cycles Form

Over the past decade, Bitcoin has established three significant cyclical highs with surprising regularity. The years 2017, 2021, and 2025 mark these milestones, each separated by approximately four years. This interval is no coincidence: it is directly related to the halving event that occurs roughly every four years.

Every time Bitcoin has reached a cyclical high, it has been followed by an extended corrective phase with predictable characteristics. The first step is an accelerated decline that typically lasts around 12 months. During these bearish consolidation periods, the cryptocurrency has experienced average reductions between 75% and 80% from the peak to the cycle bottom.

The Mathematical Structure Behind the Cycles

What’s interesting about these cycles is not just that they occur but that they generate recognizable patterns. The most recent high was formed around October 2025. Applying historical logic, the current correction phase could extend until October 2026, following the expected timeline for these market structures.

If we apply a standard correction of 75-80% to the current cycle peak, the projected support range closely converges around $29,000. This level is not arbitrary: it coincides with consolidation zones that have shown high historical volume and represents a structural support from previous cycles. It’s where Bitcoin found balance in earlier phases of its market evolution.

Price Projection: $29,000 as the Target Level

The convergence of multiple factors supports this projection. First, the 4-year cycle math extends the correction until October 2026. Second, the historical 75-80% reduction produces a range touching $29,000. Third, this level represents a previous consolidation zone with technical relevance.

But beyond these numbers, the strongest argument is consistency. Bitcoin’s cycles are not theoretical; they are observable, measurable, and have maintained remarkable discipline over the years. While no pattern is perfect, the likelihood that they will continue to resonate is significantly high.

Are Cycles Still Valid in the Current Era?

The central question is whether these cycles retain their validity in today’s market, which is much more sophisticated and has greater institutional liquidity than years ago. The answer requires balance: cycles are not guarantees, but they are not anachronistic either.

What’s important to remember is that cycles are based on fundamental principles: programmed scarcity, market expectations, and herd behavior. None of these elements have disappeared. Short-term price action may seem chaotic, but the long-term structure remains legible for those who know where to look.

In conclusion, if the structure remains intact and there is no extreme external shock, strategic patience will play a crucial role. Time matters more than conviction. Structure matters more than headlines. And cycles matter more than narratives. For investors who believe in this logic, October 2026 could be a pivotal turning point in Bitcoin’s cycle.