Saudi Arabia intensifies its strategic bet on Sudanese gold in confrontation with the UAE

By the end of January 2025, Saudi Arabia has decided to expand its presence into a new sector: the precious metals trade in Sudan. This move represents a deepening of the geopolitical and economic rivalry that already exists between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in the context of regional instability. Historically, the United Arab Emirates has dominated gold exports from Sudan, but Saudi Arabia now seeks to disrupt this balance through an aggressive trade strategy.

The new competitive frontier: gold versus political influence

The background of this initiative reveals deep diplomatic tensions. After Sudan accused the UAE of interference in its internal conflict and formally severed bilateral relations last year, the military government in Khartoum has begun actively seeking new trading partners. This is where Saudi Arabia sees a strategic opportunity. According to recent reports, the Saudi Gold Refinery Company has officially expressed its immediate willingness to purchase Sudanese gold directly from the government.

This change is not simply a conventional trade agreement. It represents a political instrument through which Saudi Arabia aims to expand its regional influence while undermining the historical position of the UAE. The lack of information about specific volumes and transaction timelines suggests that both parties are deliberately discreet about operational details.

Figures revealing the economic importance of Sudan

To understand the magnitude of this competition, just look at the trade data. During the first nine months of 2024, Sudan exported approximately 10.9 tons of gold valued at $1.05 billion. The overwhelming majority of these exports went to the United Arab Emirates, consolidating Abu Dhabi’s dominance in this market.

However, these figures barely reflect the full reality of the Sudanese gold industry. Authorities estimate that around 80 percent of total gold production is lost annually due to smuggling and illegal exploitation. This phenomenon has caused economic losses exceeding $5 billion annually, depriving the country of vital resources during times of civil war.

Expert assessments: political victory or lasting structural change?

Analysts offer divergent perspectives on the true scope of this move. Some observers consider that Saudi Arabia is making more of a political statement than a genuine commercial shift. They argue that fully replacing the UAE’s position in the short term would present significant logistical and operational challenges.

Others, however, warn that Saudi Arabia’s entry into the Sudanese gold market could lead to profound structural changes in regional trade flows. With the armed conflict still active and Sudan facing extreme financial pressures, revenue from gold exports has become a critical factor for the country’s fiscal survival. By offering an alternative to the UAE, Saudi Arabia could catalyze lasting changes in the commercial geography of African gold.