2026-02-10 16:17:51

#BTC – Weekly 200 EMA | What Comes Next? 🧠📉:

📌Historically, the 200-Week EMA acts as:
▫️Dynamic support in bull-market corrections
▫️Hard support in bear markets
▫️A fake-out zone before continuation, not a death sentence
Let’s talk probabilities 👇 :
📌Base Case (45–50%): A controlled pullback of ~15–25%:
▫️Brief dip or wick around the 200W EMA
▫️Fast reclaim on weekly close
▫️Classic mid-cycle reset, not bearish
📌Fake-Out Scenario (30–35%):
▫️Sharp downside move
▫️Stops get cleaned
▫️1–2 weekly closes below the 200W EMA
▫️Quick reclaim & continuation
▫️This fits historical liquidity-hunt behavior.
📌Deep Drop Scenario (15–20%) A 35–39% drawdown like 2022:
▫️Sustained weekly closes below 200W EMA
▫️EMA flattening / turning down
▫️Macro liquidity shock which is not the case so far.
▫️Not the base case unless structure decisively fails below 200 EMA
📌 What matters most is NOT the % drop, Watch instead:
▫️Weekly close vs 200W EMA
▫️Speed of reclaim
▫️EMA slope (still rising = bullish context)
▫️Fast reclaim = accumulation
▫️Acceptance below = risk of deeper leg
Patience > prediction. Let the weekly close do the talking.

BTC-4,23%

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