On January 15th, BTC reached a high of 979, while ETH did not break through 3448. While everyone was hoping ETH would catch up to 3500, I poured cold water on the optimism—"BTC's rebound is over, and ETH's rebound is likely also over; 3448 is not a must-break level." Since then, ETH has fallen nearly 49%.

On February 5th, I suggested that after testing a low around 1800, a oversold rebound would begin. Up to now, ETH has gained as much as 23%. Has the oversold rebound ended? What should we do next?

Figure 2 shows yesterday’s red roadmap. The movement from yesterday to today has been almost exactly as planned. Figure 1 is ETH’s one-hour chart, representing the current market trend.

In today’s BTC tweet, it was mentioned that if BTC does not fall below the 675 level, the likelihood of sideways consolidation increases. Correspondingly, for ETH, if it does not fall below 2000, the probability of sideways movement is also higher. However, in a downtrend, ETH is always weaker than BTC, so we should be more cautious with ETH moving forward.

The red and blue paths lead to the same conclusion: both indicate the first rebound wave starting from 1750 has ended. The current movement is a similar level of correction, which is expected to end around February 15th, give or take a couple of days, according to Gann timing. The only difference is that the blue correction is deeper, while the red correction is shallower. The common point is that the entire rebound starting from 1750 has not yet finished. After identifying the correction endpoint, there will be another rebound, at a level similar to 1750-2152.