#我在Gate广场过新年 Market volatility and divergence intensify, with structural opportunities and risks coexist—Morning analysis and trading strategies for the cryptocurrency market on February 22, 2026

This morning, the cryptocurrency market shows a significant divergence pattern. Bitcoin (BTC) price remains in a consolidation range between $67,000 and $69,000, with a 24-hour volatility of approximately 1.83%, and the total market capitalization is about $1.36 trillion. Meanwhile, the DeFi and infrastructure sectors perform strongly, with Morpho (MORPHO) leading with a 14.84% increase, followed by LayerZero (ZRO) which rose 14.08%. Notably, since January 14, the market has evaporated over $1 trillion in market value, with an average daily loss of about $45 billion over the past 22 days, indicating the market is in a recovery phase after a deep correction. Investors should focus on structural opportunities while strictly managing risks.

1. Market Overview and Key Data
Bitcoin (BTC) is quoted at approximately $67,787 this morning, with a high of $68,698 and a low of $67,466 within 24 hours, showing a narrow trading range. Trading volume is about 360,000 BTC, with a transaction value of $25 billion, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a battle zone between the key support level of $67,000 and resistance at $69,000, lacking clear momentum for a breakout in the short term.

Ethereum (ETH) and mainstream altcoins fluctuate mildly with the overall market, but the DeFi sector is defying the trend and strengthening. Morpho, as a decentralized liquidity optimization protocol, has gained 14.84% in a single day, with its price rising to $1.61; LayerZero, a cross-chain communication protocol benefiting from accelerated multi-chain ecosystem development, increased 14.08% to $1.73. Additionally, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), Injective (INJ), and Render (RENDER) each recorded steady gains of 5%-6%, indicating capital is gradually flowing into infrastructure projects with practical applications.

It is worth noting that the overall market remains in a recovery phase. Data shows that since January 14, 2026, the total cryptocurrency market cap has evaporated over $1 trillion, with an average daily decline of about $45 billion over the past 22 days. This correction reflects a market adjustment from previous overheating and provides a window for value investors to reposition.

2. Macro Environment and Influencing Factors
1. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations and Liquidity Environment
The current global macro environment exerts complex influences on risk assets. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate control mechanisms continue to be effective, with adjustments to reserve balance rates and standing repurchase agreements (SRP) providing liquidity support. As market expectations of rate cuts by the Fed increase, risk asset preferences are expected to gradually recover. Historical experience shows that easing monetary policy cycles often coincide with valuation expansion of crypto assets.

2. Continuous Institutional Capital Inflows
Spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows remain strong. Data shows a net inflow of $6.63 billion over the past five weeks, with institutional crypto investment portfolios from firms like BlackRock soaring from $54.77 billion at the start of the year to $102.09 billion. The sustained allocation of institutional funds provides solid support for the market bottom and validates digital assets as a long-term asset class.

3. Market Structure Evolution
The market is shifting from speculation-driven to value-driven. Wallets holding at least $100 worth of Bitcoin have increased by 25% over the past year, reaching nearly 30 million, indicating continuous new participation and an expanding market base. Meanwhile, risks associated with high-leverage accounts still need attention, as market volatility combined with leverage remains a primary risk factor.

3. Technical Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): From the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently trading within a core consolidation zone between $67,000 and $70,000. Key support levels are at $65,800 (previous low) and $63,000 (psychological level), with resistance levels at $69,000, $72,000, and the historical high zone. Technical indicators show short-term moving averages are converging, and MACD hovers near the zero line, indicating a critical point for market direction. A successful breakout above $69,000 and stabilization could trigger a new upward rally; conversely, falling below $65,000 may lead to deeper corrections.

Ethereum (ETH): ETH is currently hovering near a key psychological level, with more significant volatility than Bitcoin. On-chain data indicates that despite price pressure, institutional accumulation continues, building momentum for a rebound. Technically, ETH needs to hold support at $2,800, with resistance at $3,200 and $3,500. The strong performance of Morpho and LayerZero confirms market demand for liquidity optimization and cross-chain interoperability solutions. These projects have clear tokenomics and practical use cases, demonstrating strong resilience and rebound potential during market adjustments.

4. Trading Strategy Recommendations
1. Position Management Principles
Adopt a "core + satellite" strategy, allocating 60%-70% of total funds to core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as the base holdings, and 30%-40% to high-quality DeFi and infrastructure tokens. No single position should exceed 15% of total funds to avoid excessive concentration risk.

2. Bitcoin (BTC) Trading Strategies
• Short-term traders: Buy low and sell high within the $67,000-$69,000 range, with strict stop-loss at $66,000 and take-profit at $70,000. If breaking above $69,500, consider adding to positions with a target of $72,000; if falling below $66,500, reduce positions and wait.
• Medium- to long-term investors: Consider gradual accumulation at current levels, with initial positions controlling 30%-40% of planned total. Add on dips near $65,000, viewing below $62,000 as a deep value zone.

3. Ethereum (ETH) Trading Strategies
• Short-term: Monitor support at $2,800; if stable, consider light long positions targeting $3,200.
• Medium- to long-term: Deploy in phases between $2,800 and $3,000, with a stop-loss at $2,600.

4. Selected Altcoin Focus
Focus on projects with the following features:
• Infrastructure: LayerZero (ZRO), Morpho (MORPHO), benefiting from multi-chain ecosystem growth.
• AI and Computing Power: Render (RENDER), a GPU computing sharing platform, benefiting from rising AI computing demand.
• Compliant Financials: World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a compliant financial infrastructure project.
Use small positions, with no more than 5% of total funds per asset, and set strict stop-losses at -15% to -20%.

5. Risk Control Points
• Leverage Management: Given high market volatility, keep leverage below 3x to avoid liquidation risks.
• Stop-Loss Discipline: All short-term trades must have predefined stop-loss levels, with individual losses limited to 2% of principal.
• Liquidity Focus: Prioritize trading in coins with top 50 trading volumes to avoid slippage caused by liquidity shortages.

This morning’s market exhibits typical features of "market consolidation and structural divergence." Bitcoin is poised in a key zone, while the DeFi and infrastructure sectors’ strength against the trend reveals capital flowing into value assets. Investors should acknowledge market uncertainties and prioritize risk management by deploying phased positions, diversification, and strict stop-losses to navigate volatility. In the medium to long term, continuous institutional inflows, potential shifts in Fed monetary policy, and expanding blockchain applications still provide solid fundamental support for crypto assets.

The current market correction is more a cyclical adjustment than a trend reversal. Patient investors are likely to reap substantial returns in subsequent rallies.

Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make decisions cautiously based on their own risk tolerance.