Bitcoin – Special Weekly Report: Where Are We in the Bear Market Cycle?

The market is not only driven by charts. It operates on liquidity, leverage, and human psychology. When these three factors repeat, the cycle structure also repeats. Based on observations of all major Bitcoin cycles, the bear market can be divided into six phases. Currently, we are most likely in Phase 4 – Psychological Erosion. Phase 1: Extreme Euphoria – When Greed Peaks The 115k–125k range is a typical example. Characteristics of this phase: The belief that “risk has disappeared.”Ludicrous price predictions everywhere.Leverage increases sharply.Sideways movement at high levels before collapse. The market appears very strong externally. Internally: liquidity overload and late long positions. This is when retail is most greedy. Phase 2: Losing a Key Psychological Milestone The 100k level is broken. A psychological milestone is not just a number — it’s a trust anchor. When lost: Short-term traders begin to panic.Leverage positions are liquidated.Prices fall very quickly, leaving no time to react. The rapid crash on 10/10 is proof. The market moves before investors can think. Phase 3: The Most Brutal Drop – Confirming a Bear Market From 97k down to 60k in just 30 days. Almost 50% of market capitalization wiped out. This phase is: The fastest.The most mechanical. The least reaction time. Investors don’t have time to hedge. No time to reduce leverage. Emotions shift from hope to depression. Most of the “mechanical re-pricing” has been completed here. Phase 4: Erosion – Creating Perfect Liquidity (We Are Here) This is not a sharp fall phase. It’s the most exhausting phase. Prices move sideways for months within a “box”: Trapping breakout traders above.Trapping breakdown sellers below.Creating two-way liquidity. Retail begins to say: “Bitcoin will drop another 30–40%, sell now to be safe.” This is the zone: Weak hands sell out.Short-term holders capitulate.Regret gradually increases.Discipline diminishes. Sideways doesn’t mean “nothing happens.” It means the market is preparing for the next strike. Phase 5: Full Panic – Actual Capitulation This phase often involves: The collapse of a major organization.“Black swan” events.Global liquidity stress (REPO, credit stress…). Prices could fall to the 35–45k range if a worst-case scenario occurs. Ironically: After a 50–70% drop, investors truly panic. This is where even long-term holders start selling. Phase 6: Stabilization and Structural Reversal Gradual sell-off exhausts itself.High volatility but bottoms are being built.Whales accumulate heavily.Retail begins to predict 10k again. History repeats: Retail buys at the top — sells at the bottom. Most Important Currently, we are most likely in Phase 4. The high-speed decline phase may be over.But the psychological damage phase has just begun. When prices fall rapidly → you lose reaction time. When prices move sideways for a long time → you lose discipline. The market doesn’t beat you with volatility. It beats you with emotion. Core Lesson Don’t let the market trade you. Trade the market. Understand the structure → avoid emotional actions.Most intense accumulation occurs between Phases 5 and 6. Cycles change the context. But human psychological architecture never changes. And that is the biggest advantage for those who are patient.