THIS JUST FLASHED THE SAME SIGNAL AS THE 2022 BOTTOM 👀

We’ve only seen this setup twice.

The 60-day $USDT market cap change has now dropped below -$3B, a level last hit in late 2022 right as Bitcoin carved its cycle bottom near $16K. That was peak fear and forced deleveraging.

Now it’s happening again with $BTC still sitting in the mid-$60Ks after a prior ATH run.

On the daily side, we’ve also seen multiple -$1B+ $USDT outflow days. Historically, moves of this size tend to cluster around local exhaustion points or high-volatility flushes, not the clean start of prolonged bear legs.

From a liquidity lens, the message is clear.

Stablecoins are crypto’s dry powder. When $USDT contracts this aggressively, it signals capital leaving the ecosystem and tighter crypto-native liquidity conditions. For a reflexive asset like Bitcoin, that always matters.

But context is everything.

In prior cycles, once forced redemptions and deleveraging ran their course and flows stabilized, Bitcoin often transitioned into strong medium-term upside as liquidity normalized.

So the key variable now is stabilization.

If $USDT contraction continues, pressure can persist.
If flows flatten or reverse, the risk-reward shifts quickly back to the upside.

Extreme liquidity stress has historically marked opportunity… but only after the market confirms selling exhaustion.