Market Outlook

Bear Market, Where Are We Now, and How Much Longer?
Perhaps a question that many are concerned about: We are currently in a bear market, but where exactly are we? How far is the bottom?
Discussing the end of the bear market might be premature now, but the progression of the bear market is not without signs.
There are actually two specific questions here: 1. How much time is left until the bottom 2. How far is the bottom in terms of price
Today, we mainly focus on the second question, which is how much further we are from the bottom.
Here are two possible scenarios:
The first is a bottom in the 57-40K range, which is the initial target range we planned.
In 2022, $BTC fell a maximum of 77.81% from the top.
A bottom in the 57-40K range assumes that Bitcoin will not fall more than in the previous cycle, due to reasons like “institutional entry,” “Wall Street capital,” and others.
Currently, $BTC has already fallen 52.69% from the top.
In the worst case, it could drop to around 40,000, which means a roughly 33.3% decline from 60,000 to 40,000.
This would be a 68.65% drop from the all-time high.
If this is true, then the current decline has already completed 76.8% of the entire downward move; in other words, we have already gone through three-quarters of the main decline.
(If the bottom is above 40,000, such as within the 57-40K range, the actual decline would be even higher; here, we only consider the worst-case scenario.)
The second scenario is based on the 30K range indicated by the 2022 pattern.
If ( drops from 12.6K to 30K, it implies a 76.68% decline from the high, similar to the 2022 bear market.
Bitcoin falling from 60K to 30K would require roughly a 50% drop.
If this is true, then the current decline has already completed 68.6% of the entire downward move.
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As you can see, regardless of which scenario we consider, we have already gone through most of the decline. This is good news for us; however, it does not mean we can confidently start bottom-fishing.
First, the obvious leverage factor. Most traders use derivatives for trading. The potential 50% drop means that opening a position with 2x leverage is not safe now.
For spot trading, besides price-based capitulation )price-based capitulation(, there is also time-based capitulation )time-based capitulation.
Although the market has already declined at least 70%, the time component might have only completed less than 50%.
Looking back at 2022, for example, Bitcoin fell from 69,000 to 20,000 in 221 days, but then took 211 days to break below 20,000 again, with both durations being close.
Considering that it is only February 2026 now, if the bottom appears in Q4, we still have to wait at least 7 months, or over 200 days.
Therefore, “time-based capitulation” has not yet occurred, and we should not rush to bottom-fish.
Short-term, it might be reasonable to try for a rebound here, but it’s far from the time to go all-in.
This article is sponsored by #BCGAME｜@bcgame @bcgamecoin