#我在Gate广场过新年 According to Caixin, Ned Davis Research, a globally renowned independent macro and market strategy research firm, recently stated in a report to clients that despite experiencing significant sell-offs in recent months, Bitcoin still has potential downside space.

Chief thematic strategist Pat Tschosik and analyst Philippe Mouls from the firm indicated that if this bear market evolves into a comprehensive Bitcoin winter, the cryptocurrency's price could fall to $31,000. A further decline to this level would mean a drop of about 55% from the current level.
According to a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald, reviewing the overall trend over the past 12 months, Bitcoin started around $96,000 in February last year, gradually rising after short-term fluctuations, and maintained above $110,000 from July to October, eventually reaching a peak of $125,000 in early October.
However, this high was not sustained, and after October 2025, the market turned sideways and downward. In November, the price fell back to around $86,000 and traded sideways at this level for about a month. At the end of January this year, the market weakened again, with Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 on January 31, and the decline continued into February, with the price falling below $70,000 on February 5, reaching a low of around $63,000. This is nearly half of the all-time high of October last year.
Liu Jin, Professor of Accounting and Finance at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business and Director of the Investment Research Center, analyzed the reasons for this round of Bitcoin volatility for 21st Century Business Herald, saying: Although Bitcoin is called "digital gold," its trend is significantly different from gold and is highly positively correlated with the Nasdaq index. It should be regarded as a technology asset, with most investors having a tech background.
The previous surge was closely related to expectations of Trump's election victory, with the market anticipating strong support for digital currencies. However, after Trump took office, no strong supportive policies were introduced, and the expected support fell short, leading to a sharp correction in Bitcoin, essentially erasing the gains made after his election.