IMF expects the US debt burden to continue increasing

DeepFlowTech · 2026-02-26T02:41:00+00:00

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the US debt burden to continue increasing, with the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP rising back to 6.1% in 2026, and public debt as a percentage of GDP increasing to 100.7%. The IMF also downgraded its forecast for the US's medium-term potential economic growth.

DeepFlowTech

2026-02-26 02:41:00

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, on February 26, according to Jintiao Data, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the Fourth Review of the US in 2026 on the 25th, predicting that the US debt burden will continue to increase in the coming years. The Fourth Review is an annual assessment and evaluation by the IMF of member countries’ economic performance and macroeconomic policies. The forecast data in the statement shows that the US federal government budget deficit as a percentage of GDP will decrease to 5.9% in 2025, then rebound to 6.1% in 2026, and are expected to be 6% and 6.3% in 2027 and 2028 respectively. According to the forecast, publicly held federal debt as a percentage of US GDP will rise to 100.7% in 2026 and to 109.8% in 2031. The statement said that the increase in debt held by the public as a share of GDP and short-term debt as a share of GDP poses increasing risks to the US and the global economy. The IMF expects that, considering the impact of various policy changes, the real GDP of the US will grow by 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, while the medium-term potential growth rate of the US economy is downgraded by 0.25 percentage points.

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