You can pay more attention to the non-ferrous metals sector moving forward.

As of March 7, 2026, aluminum (London Aluminum/LME Aluminum) is in a strong bullish cycle characterized by tightening supply, explosive demand, low inventories, and collective institutional optimism. Here are the latest updates and key positive factors:

1. Latest Market Conditions (March 7)
- LME Aluminum: approximately $3,380/ton, hitting a 1-month high
- Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE): approximately 24,700 RMB/ton, surged over 600 RMB this week
- Global visible inventories are at historic lows, amplifying volatility due to low stock levels

2. Core Positive Factors (ranked by importance)
1️⃣ Supply Side: The global “aluminum shortage” is now a certainty (strongest positive)
- China’s capacity ceiling is locked in: the 45 million tons red line remains firm; operational capacity is about 44.59 million tons with 99% utilization, leaving only 83,000 tons of compliant space, with no new net capacity—only replacing outdated capacity
- Sudden overseas supply disruptions:
- ALBA (Bahrain Aluminum) announced force majeure shutdown, affecting global supply
- Middle East geopolitical conflicts (Qatar energy facilities attacked), natural gas supply cuts → soaring risk of aluminum plant shutdowns
- Multiple plants in Europe/Africa/Iceland permanently closed, with 2.51 million tons of capacity confirmed to shut down globally by 2026
- New capacity additions are severely lagging: only 1.5 million tons planned globally for 2026, concentrated in Q3-Q4, far from filling the gap

2️⃣ Demand Side: Explosive growth in new energy vehicles and new infrastructure (long-term positive)
- New energy vehicles: lightweighting (battery trays, integrated die-casting), per-vehicle aluminum usage continues to rise
- Photovoltaics + Ultra High Voltage: demand for PV frames/supports, UHV transmission lines, is growing exponentially
- AI data centers: cooling systems and infrastructure bring additional demand
- Global aluminum demand growth in 2026 is 4%, while supply grows only 1.5%, creating a gap of 1.5–2.05 million tons

3️⃣ Collective Institutional Optimism (sentiment + capital inflow)
- JPMorgan: research report on March 5 predicts aluminum prices could surge to $4,000/ton within weeks, with an average price of $3,044 in 2026
- Bank of America: increased the 2026 deficit estimate from 1 million to 1.5 million tons, expects $4,000 in Q2 2027
- Citibank: short-term target of $3,600, with a bullish scenario reaching $4,200 by 2028

4️⃣ Policy + Cost Advantages
- Domestic energy consumption dual control + green electricity policies: high-carbon capacity is restricted, green electricity aluminum enjoys a green premium, and is included in the national carbon market
- Energy cost support: electrolytic aluminum is essentially “solidified electricity,” rising natural gas and electricity prices push up global production costs

3. Short-term Catalysts (March focus)
- Ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflicts increase supply risk premiums
- China’s capacity is operating at full load, unable to increase production to stabilize prices
- Low inventories + institutional accumulation make prices more likely to rise than fall

4. Risk Warnings (for objective reference)
- Global economic recession, easing Middle East tensions, or unexpected new capacity releases
- Volatility in London Aluminum/Shanghai Aluminum, so keep positions light and set stop-losses

Would you like me to prepare a trading reference for aluminum (key support/resistance levels for London Aluminum/Shanghai Aluminum + light trading suggestions at $200 increments)? You can just monitor the market based on that.