【ETHUSDT Signal】Long: Confirmation of Volume Contraction Pullback After 4H Breakout

After the price completed its first test of the key resistance zone (~2125) on the 4-hour chart, a volume contraction pullback occurred. The latest 1-hour candle (17:00-18:00) showed increased volume with 144,964 ETH traded, and a buy/sell ratio of 0.59, the highest in the past six hours, indicating that buyers are actively absorbing at the pullback low (2090.05).

The 4-hour candle sequence shows the price rallying from a low of 2074.79, with four consecutive bullish candles with increasing volume (from 334K to 628K), and a retracement after reaching a high of 2123.25. The key signal lies in the pullback process: between 12:00 and 16:00, three consecutive 1-hour candles exhibited stepwise decreasing volume (351K -> 115K -> 57K), indicating seller exhaustion. Subsequently, the 17:00 candle expanded volume with a bullish reversal pin bar, pushing the price back above the 4-hour EMA20 (2087.73) and the 1-hour EMA50 (2093.20), forming a typical structure of volume contraction followed by volume expansion and upward momentum.

Open interest (OI) remains stable at around 1.997 million, showing no significant decline despite the price pullback, ruling out large-scale long liquidations. The funding rate stays positive at 0.0038%, and market sentiment is neutral to slightly bullish, with no signs of excessive leverage. The order book depth shows ask level 1 (2111.61) with a large order of 251.96 ETH, creating a short-term thin resistance zone. Once broken, this could trigger a short squeeze and stop-loss cascade for short positions.

🎯 Direction: Long
⚡ Entry: 2108.00 - 2112.00 (Enter after breaking above ask level 1 resistance)
🛑 Stop Loss: 2090.00 (Below the low of the volume expansion candle)
🚀 Targets: 2138.00 / 2155.00 (Previous high zone and measured projection levels)
🛡 Strategy: Reduce position by 50% at the first target (2138), and move the remaining stop loss up to the entry price.

Logic: Major institutional funds completed their initial shakeout after the 4-hour breakout. The volume contraction pullback, combined with the buy/sell ratio dropping to 0.47, created a false impression of weakness, encouraging short-term longs to exit. Then, at the critical support zone (2090-2093), a high buy ratio (0.59) bullish candle with increased volume quickly pushed the price higher, completing the accumulation of positions. The large ask orders at level 1 form a liquidity trap designed to prevent retail traders from breaking out. Once these orders are absorbed by buyers, the lack of significant sell-side orders up to the previous high at 2123.25 will allow short-term stop-loss cascades to propel the price upward rapidly. The steadily rising open interest and positive funding rate indicate a healthy continuation of the trend, not distribution at the top. The path of least resistance is upward.

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