【Institutional Strategy】A-share Market May Continue Wide-Range Fluctuations in the Short Term

China Securities believes that on Monday, the A-share market initially declined and then rebounded, with mixed gains and losses. During the trading session, industries such as semiconductors, passenger vehicles, shipping ports, and white liquor performed relatively well; coal, steel, precious metals, and energy metals performed weaker. The current core pressure on the market mainly comes from overseas, as escalating Middle East tensions trigger turbulence in global capital markets, and rising oil prices raise concerns about stagflation, which suppresses risk appetite. This has delayed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, increased fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, and put valuation pressure on global equity assets, especially high-valuation tech growth stocks. Considering the clearer macro policy tone domestically, the market has a solid bottom support. The central bank has explicitly stated it will flexibly use tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity; at the same time, supporting China Investment Corporation to play a quasi-“stabilization fund” role has strengthened market confidence in subsequent trends. It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will likely remain in a slight oscillation and consolidation; investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy developments.

Hualong Securities believes that on Monday, the A-share market bottomed out and then rebounded, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%. The market saw a collective surge in storage chip concepts, strength in deep-sea technology concepts, active performance in PCB concepts, and shipping sectors rising in the afternoon; energy storage and green electricity concepts continued to adjust, while coal sectors declined. The A-share main board bottomed out and rebounded, with support around 4050 points on the Shanghai Index being quite evident. This was the third time this month that a bottoming and rebounding pattern appeared at this level, partially releasing risks. Sector-wise, there was a brief style shift; against the backdrop of sustained strength in international oil prices, tech stocks actually strengthened, indicating some funds are beginning to enhance risk appetite and have lowered sensitivity to external uncertainties, with the semiconductor sector led by storage chips showing strong recovery.

CaiXin Securities states that on Monday, the A-share market bottomed out and then rebounded. The market saw storage chip sectors leading the gains, with marine economy concepts active, while chemical and electric power sectors performed relatively poorly. Overall, although the A-share market showed a bottoming rebound, the total market trading volume slightly shrank, reflecting cautious fund behavior. Therefore, sector rotations continue rapidly, and thematic differentiation is evident. In the short term, given the ongoing energy supply uncertainties caused by Middle East tensions and the upcoming period of intensive earnings disclosures, market risk appetite may not significantly improve. The A-share market may continue wide-range fluctuations. Investors can consider participating in structural opportunities at dips with proper position control, focusing on sectors with pricing logic or improving fundamentals. In the medium term, under the continued “double easing” of fiscal and monetary policies, ongoing household savings asset inflows, improvements in corporate performance driven by anti-inflation measures, and ongoing breakthroughs in global AI technology, the foundation of this round of A-share rally remains solid. The recent Middle East conflict is expected to only impact short-term market sentiment and rhythm, not change the overall market direction. Confidence in the medium- to long-term upward trend remains, and excessive worry is unwarranted.