#美联储加息预期再起 Oil rises, gold falls! Gold and crude oil diverge in trend, Bitcoin fluctuates and weakens. How to position for the future?

Commodities show a clear divergence pattern: oil remains strong while gold weakens. Looking back from yesterday’s US market close to this morning, gold was under pressure and moved lower with narrow recovery at lows, while crude oil surged strongly on geopolitical tensions. The two assets diverged in trend, both driven by macro data, risk aversion sentiment, and technical patterns. The future direction will still closely watch tonight’s data releases and geopolitical developments.

On the macro front, last night’s US initial jobless claims data was relatively strong, with continuing claims below expectations, highlighting resilience in the US labor market. This further solidifies the Fed’s hawkish stance, pushing the dollar and US Treasury yields higher, directly suppressing precious metals. Meanwhile, risk aversion in the Middle East continues to cool down, leading to outflows from gold and a lack of rebound momentum.

In contrast, crude oil remains supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with supply concerns intensifying. Coupled with OPEC+ production cuts, oil prices have shaken off earlier weakness, surging sharply last night and maintaining a high, strong oscillation this morning.

Technically, gold’s daily chart shows a bearish moving average alignment, with MACD forming a death cross downward, indicating a clear downtrend. After breaking below the key support of $4,500, this zone becomes a strong resistance. Intraday resistance is at $4,430–$4,450, with key support at $4,360–$4,370. If broken, it may test $4,300. Overall, gold remains weak with oscillating bias.

Crude oil, on the other hand, has broken out strongly, with short-term bullish momentum intact. WTI crude has stabilized above $90, with resistance at $95–$97 and support at $90–$91. Geopolitical factors continue to support a relatively strong trend.

Interest rate hikes tighten liquidity, causing funds to flow from high-risk assets like Bitcoin into safe assets like US Treasuries. Bitcoin’s price is usually under pressure in this environment. However, Bitcoin’s “inflation hedge narrative” may attract safe-haven funds at certain stages, so market sentiment should be considered.

Positioning suggestions:
- If market risk appetite declines, consider reducing Bitcoin holdings or hedging with futures and options.
- If you believe Bitcoin’s “inflation hedge” appeal remains, you can take small positions but strictly control leverage to avoid excessive speculation.

Tonight at 22:00, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data will be released. Better data could further pressure gold and boost the dollar; higher inflation expectations may indirectly support crude oil.

Overall, gold remains weak and should not be blindly bottom-fished; crude oil is supported by geopolitics and remains relatively strong. A pullback that stabilizes could be viewed as a buying opportunity. Both assets require strict position control and patience for tonight’s data to guide the next move.

This article reflects personal opinions only. Market conditions are highly volatile. Due to the timing of this publication, the above views or suggestions are not real-time and are for reference only. Please trade cautiously and at your own risk.