#OilPricesResumeUptrend

Oil is climbing again, and the backdrop is anything but calm.

Brent crude pushed back above $100 a barrel this week as the US-Iran conflict continues to rattle global supply expectations. What started as a geopolitical flare-up has turned into a sustained price driver — the Strait of Hormuz disruption is not just a crude oil story anymore. It is pulling in LNG, refining capacity, and the broader energy logistics chain all at once.

The IEA responded with a historic 400 million barrel reserve release, which briefly knocked prices back. Markets took the dip, then bought it. That tells you something about where sentiment sits right now.

Goldman Sachs has revised its Brent average up to $85 for the year. EY-Parthenon sees Q2 printing around $88 before a potential pullback later in the second half. The range is wide, but the near-term direction is not in much debate.

What makes this run different from previous oil surges is the persistence of the supply-side uncertainty. Past disruptions tended to be single-variable — a pipeline, a sanction, an OPEC decision. What we have now is a multidimensional shock where every diplomatic headline either adds or subtracts $3 to $5 from the price in a single session.

For crypto markets, this matters. Sustained high energy prices feed inflation expectations, which puts pressure on the Fed to stay tighter for longer, which historically weighs on risk assets. Crypto is not immune to that macro gravitational pull. BTC has historically traded with some sensitivity to real rate moves, and if oil keeps the inflation story alive into Q2, the path of least resistance for rate cuts gets narrower.

Worth watching the Iran diplomatic track closely. A ceasefire signal could unwind a meaningful portion of the geopolitical premium overnight.