Macroeconomic Outlook: Expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising, Middle East geopolitical risks are easing, global risk appetite is recovering, and the crypto market is broadly rallying, with ETH showing greater resilience.

• Market Funds: ETH spot ETF funds have shifted from outflows to inflows, with institutional accumulation; total stablecoin holdings have reached new highs, and off-chain funds are ample.

• On-Chain Fundamentals: Staking ratio exceeds 30%, ETH balances on exchanges are continuously decreasing, circulating supply is shrinking; active RWA and Layer 2 ecosystems support long-term value.

• Technical Analysis: Recent correction has brought ETH to the $1900–2000 support level, bearish momentum is weakening, and an oversold rebound is occurring.

2. Key Catalysts (Triggered Today)

1. Powell’s dovish speech: Market interprets it as increasing the probability of a rate cut in June, the dollar weakens, benefiting risk assets.

2. ETF fund inflows: ETH spot ETF has ended its consecutive net outflows, with significant daily inflows, supported by institutional buying.

3. On-chain token locking: Large amounts of ETH are transferred into staking and cold wallets, significantly easing selling pressure on exchanges.

4. Market sentiment recovery: After the sharp decline on March 27, liquidation pressure has eased, and bulls are re-entering.

3. How to View This Rally

• Short-term: It’s a rebound from oversold conditions and emotional recovery. Resistance is at $2200–2400, and there may still be some volatility before breaking through.