The Third World War may have already begun, it’s just not universally recognized yet.

These words from an ordinary politician are meant to grab attention. But when the President of Serbia says it, you have to believe it— the Balkans, a hundred years ago, was the powder keg of a world war.
He’s got it right: war doesn’t require an official declaration. Camps are solidifying, resources are turning into weapons, shipping routes are being contested. History has always rolled forward this way.
Global military spending hit $2.72 trillion last year, rising for ten consecutive years. Germany’s military budget increased by 28%, Japan by 21%, Israel surged by 65%. Money is shifting from civilian needs to shells; they are voting with their feet.
Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Fund put it more bluntly: he divides the international order into six stages, and we are now in the sixth— the law of the jungle, where power is the only principle. From trade wars, tech wars, capital wars, to geopolitical conflicts, and finally military conflicts. The first four steps are basically done, and we are sliding toward the cliff.
Dollar hegemony is loosening; the share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 71% to 57.8%. The day Russia’s $300 billion was frozen, the world woke up: your money, they say, can be frozen at will.
And what about China?
It has three energy cards: land pipelines to Russia in the north, the China-Pakistan corridor covering 80% of the distance to the west, and the Atlantic route to Brazil in the south. Any one of these lines being cut would not be fatal. More importantly, 90% of China’s electricity is unrelated to international oil and gas prices—coal, hydro, wind, solar, nuclear—it's all under our control. The penetration rate of new energy sources exceeds 50%, so even if oil prices spike again, we’ll be hurt the least.
China has the most comprehensive industrial sectors in the world; we can produce everything. 80% of global energy storage batteries are shipped from China. Europe needs to buy equipment but cannot bypass us.
The RMB is quietly filling gaps: 80% of China-Russia energy trade is settled in RMB, and Saudi Arabia has also started using it.
It’s not without pressure, but compared to others— Europe with high inflation, Japan fearing Strait blockades, Southeast Asian factories halting due to oil shortages— China is most likely the most stable major economy.
This is not luck; it’s a game plan set in motion twenty years ago. The cards in our hand are the foundation of our confidence in this great geopolitical contest. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战