Just noticed the dollar is having a solid day, up 1.29% to a 3-month high. Oil prices jumped to an 8.5-month peak, which is pushing inflation expectations higher and basically killing any near-term rate cut expectations. Money markets are now pricing only 37 basis points of Fed easing this year versus 60 basis points last week, so the mood has definitely shifted.

The interesting part is how this changes the whole rate cut expectations picture. Fed speakers are already tempering talk - John Williams mentioned cuts could come if inflation slows once tariff impacts fade, but Jeff Schmid from KC Fed is basically saying inflation's been stubbornly high for five years, so don't expect easy policy. Swaps are only giving a 2% chance of a rate cut at the March 17-18 meeting.

Euro's getting hit harder though, down 1.30% to a 3-month low. European natural gas prices surged 24% to a 3-year high, which is rough for growth and inflation outlook there. The Eurozone CPI actually came in hotter than expected - 1.9% year-over-year versus 1.7% forecast, and core hit 2.4% versus 2.2%. So even though that's hawkish for the ECB, the energy crisis is a bigger problem. Rate cut expectations for the ECB at their March 19 meeting are basically nonexistent at 1%.

Yen's down 0.27% against the dollar on the oil situation - higher crude is bad for Japan's economy. Their jobless rate ticked up unexpectedly to 2.7%, though capital spending surprised to the upside at 7.3% year-over-year. Nikkei dropped 3% though, so some safe-haven yen demand showed up. BOJ rate hike odds for March 19 are sitting at 8%.

Gold and silver got absolutely crushed today. April gold futures down 5.04% and May silver down 9.14%, both hitting 1-week lows. Stronger dollar plus soaring bond yields are the main culprits. Some forced liquidation in metals to cover equity margin calls too. That said, there's still some safe-haven bid from geopolitical risks in Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Venezuela. Plus central banks keep buying - China's gold reserves hit 74.19 million ounces in January, their fifteenth straight month of accumulation. ETF demand for gold actually climbed to a 3.5-year high recently, so institutional interest is still there despite today's selloff.