Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News update: On April 4 (UTC+8), Friday, the U.S. released its nonfarm payrolls report, showing that the country added 178,000 jobs, far above expectations. At the same time, February’s data was revised from the initially estimated decrease of 92,000 to a decrease of 133,000. Against the backdrop of reduced odds of the Federal Reserve’s 2026 rate cuts, the report provided short-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “fast and decisive” script under Trump is starting to fall apart. The market’s most critical test is also coming: the first CPI after the outbreak of hostilities is set to be released, and inflation could run wild. Some have warned, “This is not the time to trade.”

Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday 22:00 — U.S. March ISM non-manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00 — U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35 — remarks on monetary policy from FOMC 2027 voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee; Thursday 02:00 — the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30 — initial jobless claims in the U.S.; the U.S. February core PCE price index YoY; the U.S. February personal spending MoM; the final Q4 real GDP annualized QoQ rate for the U.S.; the final Q4 real personal consumption expenditures QoQ rate for the U.S.; the final Q4 core PCE price index annualized QoQ rate for the U.S.; and the U.S. February core PCE price index MoM; Friday 20:30 — U.S. March unadjusted CPI YoY/core CPI YoY, and U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI MoM/core CPI MoM. Friday 22:00 — initial U.S. April 1-year inflation expectations; initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index; and the U.S. February factory orders MoM (Source: PANews).